Saturday, August 25, 2007

2007 NCAA College Football Preview

Seven full months. Can you believe it’s been seven months since the Super Bowl? It seems like such a long time since Rex Grossman single-handedly gave the Indianapolis Colts their championship. In that span not much has really changed on the college football scene. USC appears to be the favorite, again. The SEC is absolutely loaded, again. Ohio State has a ridiculously easy schedule, again. And lastly, the BCS will more than likely mess everything up at the end, again.

However what makes college football so great are the unpredictable moments that last a lifetime. Take for instance last year with the Boise St. Broncos. The ‘hitch and ladder’ play to tie their bowl game against Oklahoma with under a minute to go, followed up by the ‘statue of liberty’ play to win it in overtime. You simply could not predict any of that. Another unpredictable moment occurred in the Championship game between Florida and Ohio State. The Buckeyes were big favorites but got pounded by the Gators 41-14.

The simple unpredictable nature of College Football is a big reason why I absolutely despise preseason rankings. In a sport where rankings and polls mean so much it is absurd to rank all the teams before anyone plays a game. It would make much more sense to wait until at least 4 or 5 weeks into the season before coming out with the first batch of rankings. As great as College Football is they do a lot of things that just do not make sense. The preseason rankings is one and the BCS is another.

College Football needs a playoff system. There is no debating this. A playoff system would truly crown a champion and would not require a whole lot of tweaking from the current system in place. The best playoff formula would include eight teams. You could even use the BCS rankings to determine the top eight teams and then use the current bowl games for each match-up of the postseason. For example, have the Cotton Bowl, the Capital One Bowl, and then two of the four ‘major’ bowls representing the first round of the playoffs. Then in the semi-finals you could use the other two ‘major’ bowls with the championship game simply being the NCAA Title Game (as it is now). Wouldn’t take too much work but it won’t happen for a very long time.

My buddy Max asked me to rank my top ten teams for the upcoming season, so what follows is a transcript of what I sent him. A couple teams I left out were Ohio State and Wisconsin. I just don’t see Ohio State having a very good year and when Barnes tells me that they will go 9-3 I tend to listen. As far as Wisconsin goes, they just never seem to put together an entire year. They have had some very talented teams over the past ten years but they never close the deal. Wisconsin is like the new girl who moves in across the street during the summer and looks absolutely stunning. However, when she shows up for the first day of school and you compare her to all the other good looking girls in the class, she falls back in the pack. They look good by themselves, but not so much with all the others.

As for Notre Dame, they are headed towards a 7-5 season. They have a very tough schedule and question marks at quarterback. This will be the first time during Coach Weis’ tenure the Irish do not make it to a BCS bowl game.

10) Florida - I think new quarterback Tim Tebow is awful and will not be able to run the offense effectively. I also believe that Auburn is better than the Gators, but there is this rule that if you win the national championship the year prior, you get a spot in the top ten. Here it is.
9) Louisville - Another rule in college football is that if you have the preseason consensus number one draft pick in next year's draft then you get a spot in the top ten. I really wanted to put TCU here. QB Brian Brohm will lead these Cardinals to a decent season, but I don't see them getting past West Virginia.

8) California - I really liked this team last year, but then Tennessee ruined their season early. If they get past that game this year, watch out. Yeah they don't have RB Marshawn Lynch anymore, but Justin Forsett should be able to handle the load. Name to remember is DT Matt Malele. Big frickin dude.

7) Oklahoma - Huge Bob Stoops fan. His team got absolutely screwed last year against Oregon. Oh, and there was that Boise St. game, but I really don't remember how that one ended. Only thing keeping me from making them higher on the list is their schedule. They got Miami, at Texas, and at Texas Tech. I just don't think they can win all of those games.
6) Texas - As much as I hate putting the Longhorns in the top ten, I guess you kind of have to. QB Colt McCoy is going to have a great season, unfortunately, and more than likely lead this team to a BCS Bowl game. Their offense will be sick this year.

5) West Virginia - The Steve Slaton and Pat White combo is going to be deadly this year. The Mountaineers are the class of the Big East and if they run the table, which they are more than capable of doing, they should be in a great position to maybe land in the title game. Owen Schmitt is another name to remember. Awesome fullback.

4) Virginia Tech - In a loaded ACC, the Hokies stand out tremendously. They are absolutely loaded on defense, and have a plethora of options for QB Sean Glennon to choose from. The only thing holding this team back is Glennon. He has to have a better year, it's a must. They play at LSU on September 8th. Good thing for the Hokies is that it's early. A loss will not ruin their chances of getting in the title game.

3) Michigan - Sorry Max, these guys are the class of the Big Ten. They bring back everybody on offense, including Jake Long who will win the Outland Trophy this year. They have a relatively soft schedule and it all will come down to the last two games of the year. At Wisconsin and then I think they end up with Ohio State. I guess those two teams typically play towards the end of the year. Only thing hurting Michigan is that QB Chad Henne has never beaten the Buckeyes.

2) USC - As much as I love Bob Stoops, I hate Pete Carroll that much more. However, he does bring back a very talented team with one of the more polished QB's in the nation with John David Booty. The Trojans are the consensus preseaon number one, but I believe they have two things working against them. First, they are inexperienced at both wide receiver and running back. Secondly, they have one helluva schedule. I don't see them running the tables at all. Two losses wouldn't take much.

1) LSU - When a team losses two players (Russell and Landry) who were drafted in the top ten and still somehow manages to not only make the top ten but be in first, well, then you know you have a special team. I see the Tigers as the best team in the country, hands down, no doubt about it. Russell is replaced by QB Matt Flynn who was the MVP of their bowl game against Miami a couple years back, so you know he is capable. Early Doucet is one of the best wideouts in all of college football. Despite losing Landry, some, myself included, believe they have the best secondary in the nation as well. They play in the SEC, so you know they have a tough schedule, but, they play all of the big games at home this year. VaTech, Florida, Auburn, Arkansas, and South Carolina all at home. These guys are the real deal.


In the national championship game LSU will defeat West Virginia in a shoot-out.

That’s all I got for this post. Expect my next couple of posts to include my NFL rankings and where I feel the Cleveland Indians will end up. Also, if anyone is still interested in my ATS (Against The Spread) NFL Pick’em, let me know soon.

Until next time, “read it, roll it, hole it.”

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Brady Brady Brady

If I had to rank my favorite teams then the Cleveland Browns would be number one followed by Notre Dame. I guess that makes Brady Quinn my all-time favorite player. Well, I wouldn’t go that far, but back in May of 2006, when I compiled my top forty sports figures, Brady just missed the top twenty, falling in the #21 spot. It’s safe to say that he has made a small jump towards the top since that list was unveiled. I also wrote in September of ‘06 that if Brady would ever join the Browns then God would be faced with a huge conflict of interest. As of August 8, 2007, no Cleveland Brown is seriously injured and all key players are at camp. I can’t knock hard enough on wood for that one. (that’s what she said)

Unless you happen to live under a rock then you have heard that Brady Quinn has signed a five year deal with the Cleveland Browns. Brady has been under not a rock, but a microscope of scrutiny since his Sugar Bowl defeat back in January. “Brady does not perform well in big games.” “Brady is not worth a top ten draft pick.” “Brady is an inaccurate quarterback.” “Brady needs to get into camp, he is just being selfish.” These are just a small sample of some of the complaints I’ve been hearing about Brady over the past ten months.

Let’s go back to the days leading up to the NFL Draft to get my complete perspective on Brady Quinn.

The Browns had the #3 pick in the NFL Draft. Going into the draft I felt that Adrian Peterson would have been the best fit for the Browns. Not gonna lie, I still feel that way. Cleveland claims to be a running team, but never have the personnel in place to do so. The combination of Peterson and Jamal Lewis could have been lethal. However, I would have been fine if Calvin Johnson had slipped to Cleveland as well. As a big Brady fan it would have been cool for Cleveland to pick him, but deep down I wanted Brady to excel in the NFL and thought that Miami would give him the best chance to do so.

Turns out the Browns didn’t pick any of those three players and instead went with Offensive Tackle Joe Thomas. Pete and my dad loved the pick, while I hated it at the time, and not gonna lie, I still kind of do. Third is awfully high to pick an offensive lineman, and I did not think that Thomas had separated himself from the other lineman such as Levi Brown or even Joe Staley. However, they went with Thomas and I started to drink heavily in order to drown my sorrows and disappointment in my favorite team.

As the 1st round of the draft slowly labored on the big question remained, “Where will Brady land?” The cameras were on him after every single pick, gauging his reaction. The common thought among the experts on ESPN and the experts at the bar was that Brady would go to the Miami Dolphins. Jared confirmed my thoughts in that Miami would be a perfect situation for Brady. The Dolphins, on the other hand, thought differently.

Cue NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, “With the 9th pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select … Ted Ginn, wide receiver, Ohio State.”

Wait, what? Did I hear that right? Ted who? Have I been drinking that much already?

The NFL Network showed a split screen of the announcement of the pick along with Quinn, thinking Brady would be the obvious choice. Like all of us, Brady was equally as stunned. I’m no lip reader, but it was fairly easy to see that Brady said “That was surprising.”

Where would Brady go now? None of the teams drafting in the next few spots had a need for a young quarterback, no matter how talented he may be. Houston had Matt Schaub. Tennessee had Vince Young. St. Louis had Marc Bulger. It looked like Brady was going to have make himself comfortable for a while.

As I slowly regained consciousness from that enormous reach of a pick the Dolphins made, whispers started to float around that some teams were trying to make a trade to grab Brady. The Browns were one of them. Not only was I intrigued by these rumors, I was very excited for a chance to get Quinn.

Now, some of you might be thinking at this point, “Luke, you just said earlier you didn’t want Brady to come to the Browns, why the sudden change of heart?” Good question. Hear me out.

I entered the draft like I enter all of the drafts in which the Browns are drafting high (so, all of them that I can remember) by saying the Browns need to take the BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that what the Browns need are GOOD PLAYERS. They have about 1.5 good players currently on the roster. (Between Kellen Winslow Jr., Braylon Edwards and Andra Davis it adds up to 1.5) Was Joe Thomas the best player available when the Browns selected him? Not even close. Peterson, Quinn, and LaRon Landry are all better players than Thomas.

“Luke, how do you come to that conclusion?” Another good question.

I judge a good player by one who can have the greatest impact on a team. For Joe Thomas to be successful, the entire offensive line needs to be good. Thomas can only block so many people at once. In other words, Thomas is limited in what he can do, where as those other three players I mentioned are not.

You do need to have a good offensive line in order to be a successful team. Look at the Colts, the Patriots, and the Chargers. They all have decent o-linemen. Look back at their recent draft history. How many times did one of them take an offensive linemen in the 1st round the last six years? The answer, just one. The point being that you can still have a great o-line, without wasting your 1st round pick on them.

My father has cried ever since the Browns returned to the NFL that they don’t have a line. “Luke, it doesn’t matter who you got back there to throw or run if you don’t have a good o-line.” Okay dad, you have a point, to an extent.

What is the definition of a good o-line? Probably one that gives the quarterback sufficient time to make a throw and opens up enough space for the running back.

Guess what dad, the Browns did not have a terribly bad o-line last year. As for that matter, the last couple of years. Reuben Droughns ran for over 1200 yards back in 2005. Had he played all 16 games in 2006, he would have been close to another 1000 yard season. It is fairly safe to say that Droughns is not a great running back by any means, so he must have had a decent o-line to run behind, right?

The Cleveland Browns first priority is to be able to compete with their division rivals. For the most part the Browns have the players put in place in order to so. But, what about quarterback. Take a look at the AFC North. The Steelers have Big Ben, the Bengals have Carson Palmer, and the Ravens have Steve McNair. Who do the Browns have? Um, Chuck Frye and Derek Anderson. We’ve seen what they can do. Unfortunately.

The Browns are still miles behind any good NFL team when it comes to their starting quarterback. This is why they had to go and get Brady.

Back to the draft.

I never said that I didn’t want Brady to play for the Browns. I just simply said I would rather the Browns take Peterson or Calvin Johnson. Quinn would have been the 3rd choice, and I would not have had a big problem with it.

As picks #10 through #18 went off the board, Brady remained on it. The anticipation was starting to grow in me as Cleveland and now Baltimore was showing interest in Quinn. If Baltimore would have snatched Quinn, I might have thrown myself into oncoming traffic. I hate the Ravens more than any other team and having Quinn torch the Browns two games a year for the next decade would have, as Lauryn Hill put it, “killed me softly.”

Anyways, to make a long story short (at this point it might be too late), the Browns traded back into the first round to get Brady with the 22nd pick of the NFL Draft. They gave the Cowboys their 2nd round pick of the ‘07 draft along with their 2008 1st round choice.

I was absolutely ecstatic at this point. The combination of drinking for 5+ hours and frantic phone calls with Kevin and Jared made me about as excited as I’ve ever been for the Browns. They got Brady. Along with Brady’s arm, they got a face for their franchise, and more importantly, a future.

Okay, after that long story which should have been a column in of itself, I can continue on with my response to this bashing that Brady has taken for quite a while now.

Complaint #1 - “Brady does not perform well in big games”

First things first, it is best to identify what these “big games” are. In my opinion, just about every game that Notre Dame plays is a “big game.” Yes they usually play two of the Academies every year, but the fact remains that Notre Dame is a national powerhouse. Whereas teams such as Nebraska and Ohio State are very big in their specific region, Notre Dame fans stretch throughout the whole United States. That said, if their QB has a bad game, no matter who it is against, there will be scrutiny from a lot more angles then say a QB at Michigan.

The ones who claim Brady plays poorly when it matters the most, are probably referring to games against Michigan, USC, and any bowl games. Brady’s record in those games is 2-7. That’s pretty ugly.

Looks like these guys have a point. Looks can be deceiving, lets dig a little bit deeper.

Notre Dame plays year in and year out a top notch schedule. There is no arguing that whatsoever. Brady’s record in all other games besides those three previously mentioned is 23-5. That’s pretty darn good. It appears as if critics just picked out those three games, knowing full well what the result would be. Heck, they could have completely thrown out Michigan to better make their case (Brady has a 2-1 record against the Maize and Blue), but that just leaves two “big games” and doesn’t look as good all of a sudden.

It is safe to say that Notre Dame was over-hyped last year. They were ranked #2 in the preseason polls, and many thought they could compete for a national title. Well, Michigan spanked them early in the season, USC spanked them late, and then LSU finished them off in the Sugar Bowl. In all three cases, Notre Dame was picked apart on the defensive side of the ball. The three teams combined for 132 points. That is an average of 44 points per game! Brady can do only so much, and honestly, did not have much to work with. His offensive line was pathetic to say the least, his running back failed to even get picked in the ‘07 draft, and his best receiver is now a minor league pitcher. Even with all of that working against him, Brady managed to put up decent numbers in those games. Combining all three games, Brady completed 48% of his passes for 656 yards. He threw 8 TD’s to 4 INT’s. This is the absolute worst you can make Brady’s career numbers look. Doesn’t look all that bad now does it?

Complaint #2 - “Brady is not worth a top ten draft pick”

Make no mistake, Brady was NOT a top ten draft pick this year. He fell all the way down to #22. However, that does not mean that Brady is not a top ten talent at all. Throughout life one will find that often times circumstances dictate all. This is certainly the case with Brady and the 2007 NFL Draft.

USC quarterback Matt Leinart won the Heisman Trophy his junior year of college and was projected to be the #1 pick in the 2005 Draft. However, Leinart decided to stay in school for his senior season and bypass the NFL. Leinart did not repeat as the Heisman Trophy winner, but put up just as impressive numbers as he did the year prior. Where did Leinart get picked in the 2006 Draft? He fell all the way to #10.


Leinart being picked by the Cardinals with the #10 spot doesn’t mean that he is not a #1 talent, it just means that for whatever reason he happened to fall where he did. Having studs like Reggie Bush and Vince Young in your draft class were probably reasons for the slip, but it does not take away from Leinart’s abilities whatsoever.

The Leinart situation can be applied to Brady’s as well. There is no doubt that Brady is a top ten talent. He was the 2nd QB taken in the draft and it just so happened that when he went past the #9 spot, no one needed a quarterback. That doesn’t take away Brady’s abilities, it is simply a matter of circumstance.

Complaint #3 - “Brady is an inaccurate quarterback”

Brady has not even as much played a down in an NFL game so it would be unfair to say at this point in time that he is indeed inaccurate. The only things to go on would be his past performance in the college ranks and his mechanics.

Starting with mechanics, Brady has been mentioned several times as having almost “flawless” mechanics. This should come as no surprise. His coach at Notre Dame, Charlie Weis, is a quarterback guru. He took Tom Brady from being a nobody to well, Tom Brady. Coach Weis knows how to mold QB’s and he helped Brady achieve very good form.

While at Notre Dame, Brady just so happened to be a very accurate thrower. In his two seasons with Charlie Weis as the head coach Brady completed 63% of his passes for over 7300 yards. He then piled on 69 touchdowns to just 14 interceptions. I don’t know about you, but I like what I see there.

Complaint #4 - “Brady needs to get into camp, he is just being selfish”

Brady signed a five year contract today which ended a holdout that lasted 11 days. The contract totals roughly 20 million dollars and could reach a maximum of 30 million if a majority of incentives are reached. This holdout bothered a lot of fans, for some reason, as they thought Brady needed to get in camp from day one. I have one question for them, why?

Why does Brady need to get in camp? To bond with teammates? To practice being a backup? To learn the offense quicker? Give me a good reason. There might be one out there, I just haven’t heard it yet.

There is no surprise that the Cleveland Browns were expecting Brady to hold out. Now, I was obviously not in on the negotiations so I do not know exactly what went on, but after reading several reliable sources, I have come to the conclusion that the Browns were not that bent out of shape with Brady holding out. Here is why.

As Brady held out, the QB battle was down to Anderson and Frye. The thing is, neither Anderson nor Frye stood out at all during Brady’s holdout. Neither one of them impressed the coaches all too well. Had Brady been in camp from day one, the temptation would have been there not only from the fans and the media, but also by the performance of Chuck and Derek to start Brady. The Cleveland Browns do not want any part of Brady starting anytime soon. Now, since Brady held out, that temptation is not present and they can ease Brady into the starting role.

I’m not saying that Brady might have been offered a “low-ball” contract by the Browns, though that could have very well been the case. Brady’s agent Tom Condon was not asking for top ten money, rather, he was asking for top twenty money. That is not a reach at all, considering all the Browns gave up to get him.

Another fact in this holdout that makes me wonder is why the Browns were so furiously nit-picking at years four and five of the contract. Cleveland gave up next year’s 1st round pick to get Brady which tells me that he is the future QB of the franchise. It doesn’t make much sense to quibble about those last two years of the contract. By that time, Brady better be starting or something terribly went wrong, and the Browns could just release the contract. That is the beauty of NFL contracts, the only thing guaranteed is the “guaranteed money,” everything else can be wiped away instantly.

Will Brady Quinn start at any time this season for the Browns? I honestly do not know. In a perfect world, I honestly hope he does not. As cool as it would be for Brady to start a game in 2007, it would be much better for his future and the future of the team that he does not play at all in ‘07. Yes, Peyton Manning came right in, took some lumps, and now look at him. However, Manning is the exception, not the rule on rookie quarterbacks. The current trend, which I feel is the surest bet on rookie QB’s, is to have them sit one year and start playing in year two. Look at Phillip Rivers and Carson Palmer. Two Pro Bowl QB’s who never even sniffed the field their rookie season.

As I wrap up this novel of a column the whole idea of Brady as a Cleveland Brown just does not seem real to me. Brady IS going to be a good QB. He was groomed by one of the best in Charlie Weis and has never shown any signs at all that he will struggle. The next time the Browns win a playoff game, Quinn WILL BE the starter. Will the bashing stop then? I doubt it. Just look at Peyton Manning. They (myself included) said that Manning would never lead a team to the Super Bowl. Whoops.
Here’s to hoping “they” get it wrong again.

Go Browns.

Until next time, “Read it, roll it, hole it.”