Monday, January 26, 2009

2009 PGA Tour Picks - Matt vs. Luke: An Introduction

A tradition unlike any other. Okay it's not the Masters, but it's right up there in my opinion. For those who are unfamiliar with our competition, check out Barnes' post HERE. It explains the format, all of our rules, and even a few new wrinkles we added during our off-season meeting.

You should check out that post before continuing. I'll wait. Go ahead.

Good to go? Fan-tastic. Giddy up. (Side note: the only thing that Barnes failed to mention is that the winner of the previous year gets the first pick the next year AND starts the year with two more Tiger picks.)

We are three weeks into the 2009 season, having completed the Mercedes Championship, Sony Open, and the Bob Hope Classic. Instead of going over the rules, or talk about upcoming tournaments, let's take a look back at the 2008 season, as it was the first time Matt Barnes and I made it through an entire year of selecting picks.

The best way to go about recapping the 2008 season is to first look at the statistics.

We picked one tournament for 38 weeks, with the majors counting as double strokes.

WINS - Advantage Luke (Eight vs. Five)

It didn't take long for one of us to pick a winner outright in the 2008 season, as yours truly correctly picked K.J. Choi during the Sony Open. It would be the first of eight wins for the King of Arguments, while Barnes ended up garnering five victories (one being for the higher point total in the WGC Accenture Match-Play Championship ... we both correctly picked Tiger to win). These extra wins allowed for more opportunities to pick Tiger, which ended up being for nothing as Mr. Woods didn't play a single tournament after the U.S. Open.
Barnes notched his first victory of the year when Phil Mickelson won the Northern Trust Open. Matt followed that performance by claiming the aforementioned Match Play Championship, creating a two-tournament winning streak. Two weeks later, Tiger Woods came through for Barnes (it would be the only time Tiger won on Matt's side the entire season) in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. In a span of five weeks, Barnes had himself three winners. A pretty impressive mark, but I would better it during the second half of the season.

Luckily for me, I had Tiger Woods for the U.S. Open. The way Tiger was able to win arguably the toughest test in golf on one leg was inspirational. It certainly inspired me to continually pick winners. The very next week Stewart Cink got the job done for me at the Travelers Championship. Then, the week after, Kenny Perry took home the Buick Open title, giving me three consecutive tour victories. I misfired at the AT&T National, choosing Ryuji Imada over the eventual winner Anthony Kim. Instead of being flustered by my near four in a row, I bounced back the next week at the John Deere Classic thanks to Kenny Perry. Giving me four victories in a five week span, besting Barnes by one win.

MAJORS - Advantage Luke (One vs. Nothing)

After we both failed to pick Trevor Immelman at the Masters, I took Tiger Woods with the first pick at the U.S. Open. We all know the rest was history. It was the one and only time that we were able to pick a major champion.
Padraig Harrington won the next two big ones (British Open and PGA Championship), but we apparently were not sold on Paddy. In fact, only once did either one of us pick the eventual 2008 Pga Tour Player of the Year. Barnes chose Harrington with the fourth and final selection for The Barclays (the first tournament of the FedEx Playoffs). How did Harrington fair? Well, he promptly missed the cut.

An interesting note about majors developed within our picks last season. Double strokes are huge (that's what she said), because one bad week or one terrific week can swing momentum in your favor quite quickly. Barnes won the week of the Masters and PGA Championship, while I took the other two. Every single time, the person who won the week of a major had the first pick, meaning they won the week prior.

What does this mean? Well, it places a top priority on tournaments the week prior to a major. The Houston Open, Stanford St. Jude Championship, John Deere Classic, and the Bridgestone Invitational might not meen much to the general sporting public, but to Barnes and myself, they are vital.

PLAYOFFS - Advantage Luke (4-for-5 vs. 0-for-2)

Four of my eight victories came via playoffs, while Barnes was not nearly as fortunate, misfiring on both occasions he had a horse running in a playoff.

For those who do not believe in fate, well check this out.

In the season ending Tour Championship (our last tournament), Barnes chose Anthony Kim and Sergio Garcia, while I picked Vijay Singh and Camilo Villegas. The tournament was not decided after all the golfers had played the four required rounds. Villegas and Garcia were tied and headed to a playoff.
For the first time, we each had a golfer in a playoff. Needless to say, Villegas triumphed over Garcia that day, giving me my fourth playoff win, and eighth total victory of the season. It was a fitting end to the 2008 season for Barnes and myself.

THE REST OF THE STATISTICS

BARNES - LUKE
5 - WINS - 8
0 - MAJORS - 1
0/2 - PLAYOFFS - 4/5
12 - MISSED CUTS - 13
1 - WITHDRAWALS - 0
20 - WINNING WEEKS - 19
AT&T Classic (-28) - BEST WEEK - (-35) Travelers Championship
British Open (+82) - WORST WEEK - (+62) British Open
(Week One) 2 Strokes - BIGGEST LEAD - 103 Strokes (Week Twenty-Nine)
1 - WEEKS LED - 36 (Consecutive)

(-114) - FINAL SCORE (-173)

So there you have it. I was the winner last year by 59 strokes. With all the different twists we have this year, it should be interesting to see how it all goes down. Missed Cuts have the possibility of being very dangerous, and with the four FedEx Cup Playoff Tournaments acting as double stroke events, it could come down the very end.

Every week I will give you our picks for the week so you can follow right along with us as we set out to embark on the 2009 PGA Season.

Until next time, "Read it, roll it, hole it."

Sunday, January 25, 2009

2008 NFL ATS Pick 'Em: The End

Dear members of the 2008 NFL ATS Pick 'Em,

Every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end. Semi-sonic believes it. I believe it. And so should you. Until I begin to write new columns, I need to close the chapter on our season.

There is one last NFL football game to be played this year. A football year that started all the way back in September will come to its conclusion next week with the playing of the 43rd Super Bowl. However, for all extensive purposes, this ATS Pick 'Em league has been finished for nearly a month. The money won has been sent. The awards (to the select few who informed me of their addresses) have been sealed and mailed. Our season, is officially over.

I was quite skeptical of running a 20 member league. In 2007 we had just eight players but a boatload of problems. People were not turning in money. Some people missed a week or so of picks. I stopped posting anything. It was certainly not perfect. Far from it. So, you can understand the root of my skepticism when our attendance more than doubled. I figured we were in for the same problems and probably a few I was not prepared for.

I was pleasantly surprised.

Sure we had one or two guys take a little extra time getting in their money. Sure we had one or two members just stop participating with four weeks to go. Sure we had a few cases when someone missed the deadline. But, all things considered, the league ran rather smoothly.

Our first big crisis came when Brandin Bursa dropped without making any selections. Due to my slight condition of OCD, I felt it necessary to have a solid group of 20, not 19. My brother Josh came to the rescue and said he would join. That one phone call proved to be not only my undoing as defending champ, but the rest of the league's as well. But in a good way. I think.

Josh received the worst record right off the bat because he replaced Brandin who missed week one. Not wasting any time, Josh went 13-2 in week two, the best weekly record in the two-year history of this ATS league. The rest was exactly that ... history. He stayed near the top and when guys like Lucius (who seemed to be at the top forever) and Justin (how did he not make any money?) fell, Josh was there to stake his claim. Josh just never had a horrible week. I've said, to anyone who cared to listen, that the key to making money in this league is to stay consistent, pick your spots, and avoid the horrible week. In golf they call it course management. Well Tiger, meet Joshua Florence.

As for me, the defending champ. My reign came to an end. I peaked too late. There was very little I could do to catch up with the likes of Josh, Lucius and Justin, unless they fell dramatically back. The latter two did. The former did not. I had some sub-par weeks, and never really felt comfortable until the end. Staying with golf references, I was like that Sunday golfer who went out and posted a final round score of 63. Great score, but would have been more useful on Friday.

Justin Whelan did shoot a 63 on Friday, and then another on Saturday in my hypothetical golf tournament. However he was more Greg Norman than Tiger Woods on Sunday. This should not be what Justin is remembered for this year. Not at all. He came right in to unfamiliar territory and turned some heads with his performance. His comments showed the amount of research he was putting into his picks and into the league as a whole. He always double-checked my work, which I could not be more grateful for beacuse we were both striving for accuracy. He always voiced his opinion when asked, and he was the first to send in his money. Needless to say, Justin improved this league greatly.

Josh and Justin weren't the only newcomers who performed well above expectations. Alex Lucius was the second-to-last member of our league, but was typically always in the top three of our standings. Besides his ever-growing intellect, Lucius brought charisma and personality. His thoughts for the week were always a bright spot, and his quotes for some of the games were ... well, what you would expect from AL if you know him. And if you don't, read some of his thoughts/comments.

Don't forget about Brian Boesch either. His goal the entire year was to finish in the money, and thanks to an outstanding week 17, he did just that, taking home $40 for his fourth place effort. Boesch is a sports-junkie, and without question the best bowler amongst us. By finishing in the money, Brian has sent a message, loud and clear, that he will be a force to reckon with in years to come.

Finishing just one game out of the money were Devin Frank and Ryan Polito. A Buccaneer and a Steeler. D-Frank has had a tough time the past two years trying to collect some money. Last season, Kevin came through and stole 3rd place from him, and this year Boesch slipped through to take 4th. As for Polito, well, the league just wouldn't be the same without him. First of all, he's a Pittsburgh Steeler fan surrounded by a group of Browns supporters, which adds tension and conflict. Secondly, his special columns were second to none. Polito will no doubt enjoy this Super Bowl moreso than the rest of us, but this league enjoyed his presence tremendously as well.

But, Polito didn't have the only special column. Andrew Reinhart dropped us several Chew On This segments, and Jake Young always had a different wrinkle in his picks each week. Their efforts did not go unnoticed and were appreciated several times over.

And then there was Kevin Hunt. His comments for each and every game were overwhelming. Humorous, insightful, always original, Hunt's comments embodied exactly what this league is all about. A group of friends with a little money at stake, picking games played by millionaires. I doubt there would even be another season of this league if Kevin quit.

Those were some of the people I felt needed to be singled out. For the people who sent me their address, I added a personal touch to your award as well, which was designed to compliment this column.

I should apologize to those who enjoyed reading the weekly picks' column, for not posting anything more than the picks the last few weeks. I kind of mailed it in that regard. The last month or so I would simply cut and paste the comments that were sent, and it seemed rarely would I add my own two cents. But, at the very least, I wanted to get the picks out there. With $400 up for grabs, it was vital that people could see who everyone else was selecting.

I already have some changes in mind for next season, especially with the format, and would love to hear what everyone thought. Good or bad. Especially if it is bad.

If you've made it this far in this column, and still would like to get an award, just send me your address and I will make sure you get one.

Lastly, thanks for sticking with me this season. I had an absolute blast organizing and putting this all together. Sure it takes a lot of time, but it personally allows me to keep touch with some good people I might not otherwise. Ultimately this league is about its' members. You guys. I cannot thank all of you enough for this year. I look forward to the future and wish you all the best.

Signed, Luke Florence.

"Read it, roll it, hole it."