2009 NFL ATS Pick 'Em: Now Is The Time

By: Luke Florence

There are only a few things that make me literally shake with excitement. One would be any series premier or finale of LOST. Another would be anytime one of my teams is in a Game 7 of a championship series (or in any championship game for that matter). The one that comes at the same time, every year without hesitation, is the NFL's opening weekend. My first year with Sunday Ticket is only adding to that giddiness. It is to the point where I doubt I will even be able to sleep on September 12th.

I'm ready to go. Now is the time.

It is also time for the 3rd Annual NFL ATS Pick 'Em League. Before we get into the league introductions and Las Vegas Odds, let's take a look back to 2008.

Year #2 truly was an historic season for this league. We went from eight members in 2007, to a full twenty the next. Another Florence won, but not the one you would expect. Mid-way through the season, the league was setting an unprecedented pace in terms of wins and losses. We also added two special columns and several featured picks of the week.

Here were the highlights from an eventful packed season.

- Braves started the season tied for first, but ended it in dead last.

- Brandin Bursa dropped out at the last second, and was replaced with Josh Florence. Josh was handed the worst record after one week in the league, and responded by going 13-2 in week two. An ATS record for best week ever.

- Alex Lucius lead for an astonishing nine weeks, but ended up third after a shaky last month.

- Justin Whelan broke a league record when he had the best week record for four consecutive weeks. It vaulted him from 11th to 1st. Unfortunately for Justin, his first week atop of the league he went 3-11 and sank back down to 6th. He never got back into the top four, and ended in 10th. He was well deserving of the Katy Perry Hot N Cold Award.

- After flirting with the best overall record of 150-106 (held by yours truly in 2007), the winning record finished at 147-109 by Josh Florence. The KOA finished 2nd (144-112), Big Al took home 3rd (141-115), and newcomer Brian Boesch grabbed the last money spot (139-117). The top four were all Browns fans, which just goes to show you that Steelers fans do not know anything about anything.

- Chewy and Polito each wrote their own special column. Chewy typically discussed the performances of the linemen, while Polito talked about the Most Dominant and the Least Dominant person/team/event of the week prior.

- The top three spots were known heading into the final week, but there was a fight to the end for spot number four. There were five people (Devin, Justin, Brian, Polito, and Shane) within four games of each other. Boesch earned the money the old-fashioned way, by going 11-5 and edging Polito by one game.

- Jake Young emerged as Mr. Consistency, always getting his picks in on time and always providing comments for each and every game. More info on this award later in the introductions.

There were several other story angles worth mentioning, but this post is going to be long enough as it is. Now let's take a second and talk about some changes this season for our league.

1) In years' past a game that ended in an ATS tie (meaning the spread was ten points and the favorite won by exactly ten), everyone making a pick for that game was given a win. That will no longer be the case. We will be using half-point spreads in every game to eliminate this conundrum.

2) We have also seen a growing problem in getting picks in, and to try and eliminate this from taking place we are enforcing a stricter penalty for failing to turn in picks.

a) If you miss ONE WEEK then you will be handed the WORST RECORD for that week.

b) If you miss TWO WEEKS then you will be given an 0-FOR RECORD for the 2nd week missed.

c) If you miss THREE WEEKS then you will be out of the league. See ya. Thanks for playing. Better luck next year. Yes it may be harsh, but it is necessary in order to protect the integrity of the league. And who are we kidding anyways. If you have missed three weeks you have zero chance of winning any money. But you will be struck from the record book by missing three weeks. In short, just like Memphis' Final Four run two years ago ... it never happened.

3) We will settle ALL TIEBREAKS at the end of the year in a sudden-death playoff ATS pick'em format. No matter if the tie is for 1st or 23rd, it will be decided. More to come on this when we reach late December.

4) The deadline for turning in picks VARIES.

a) If you are simply turning in picks WITHOUT COMMENTS, then it is ONE HOUR before kickoff of the first Sunday game.

b) If you are turning in picks WITH COMMENTS, then it is THREE HOURS before kickoff.

c) If you are turning in a special section, then it needs to be in 12 HOURS before kickoff.

This allows me to edit, and make everything look nice on the blog. Thanks for understanding.

5) We have 26 members on our official roster, meaning there is $520 up for grabs. We will pay the top five this season. 250-120-75-50-25. The winner will take home just less than half of the prize pool but maybe more importantly, he will also receive an automatic birth in the 2010 F'd Up Tourney.

On we go.

You will soon notice that we will be using music to help illustrate each column associated with our league. Maybe at the end of the season I will compile all the songs into a CD? I'm getting ahead of myself.

In order to kick-start the league and draw outside interest, we used Phil Collins "In The Air Tonight." Now, for our league introductions we use another familiar song.

"Sirius," by the Alan Parsons Project.

Not familiar? Never heard of it? I bet you have. It's the music used as a backdrop during the Chicago Bulls player introductions, immortalized by Michael Jordan. Here's a refresher in case you have forgotten.

Doesn't that put you in the mood for some introductions?

Without further ado, here are the 2009 NFL ATS Pick 'Em League Members. What a lucky bunch.

2009 NFL ATS PICK 'EM LEAGUE MEMBERS (in alphabetical order once league seniority was considered)

1) Matt Barnes - 3rd Year - 2007: 130-126 (4th) - 2008: 120-136 (17th)
It's actually quite difficult to describe the third year league members. Only because it's been done twice over and there's really not much more to say. But, we will press on. I met Barnes on my second day of college, and we've been great friends ever since. He is one of the few guys I've found who can actually carry a legitimate sporting debate. Believe me, we've had our share, and there not always about sports. He is the reason this blog is tiled, "King of Arguments." Just this off-season Barnes, who has gone the majority of his life without a favorite NFL team, decided to back the Indianapolis Colts. Maybe that's been the missing piece for Barnes. As will be the case with the entire NFL season ... we shall see.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 22-1

2) Bart Borer - 3rd Year - '07: 115-141 (7th) - '08: 136-120 (8th) - 2007 Best Ongoing Joke Award
I wrote back in 2008 that it was difficult to come up with the proper words in describing this man. It still holds true to this day. Here is a brief story that might fill you in on the glory of Bart Borer. Last year Bart came to Athens (as he did on multiple occasions) for the weekend. One night, while staying at a friends' house, I could hear Bart pacing around the living room long after we had all gone to sleep for the night. Next thing I know, he relieves himself in the corner of the living room, but continues to pace around. Soon thereafter I hear a loud crashing sound, followed by a delayed "OWWW." A couple hours pass and Bart is tapping me on the shoulder, "Luke, wake up ... I think I fell down the stairs." Quite sure enough he did, and put a golf ball sized knot right on his eye. Just a typical day in the life of Bart Borer. In all honesty though, watch out for him this year. His 21 game turnaround last year is the best in the history of the league. If he can push his win total up by another five games, he should be making money.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 28-1

3) Luke Florence - 3rd Year - '07: 150-106* (1st) - '08: 144-112 (2nd)
Yours truly. I absolutely love putting this league together for a couple reasons. One, it's my favorite sport. Two, it gives me a rooting interest in every game of the season. Three, it allows me to keep in touch with some good people that I might not be doing otherwise. And fourth, I'm not too bad at picking the games either. Last year was a difficult one however, and I really did not start putting it all together until the last month and a half. By then it was too late. I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Just stay consistent, aim for ten wins a week, avoid the horrible week, pick up on some trends before everyone else, and you should go home a winner. So far so good.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 20-1

4) Devin Frank - 3rd Year - '07: 129-127 (5th) - '08: 138-118 (6th)
Our first, and only, member to be participating from the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. Devin is studying overseas for an entire year in order to obtain his Masters Degree. Upon completion, my money is on him staying over there, but who knows. D-Frank and myself have been talking football since high school when we were consistently the best two "pickers" amongst our classmates. We roomed together our Freshman year at Ohio University. We hosted a radio show at Heidelberg. We also have the same favorite European soccer team (Liverpool). Devin is also the only Tampa Bay Buccaneer fan, so it might be a good thing he is in Eurpoe this year. But expect him to be in the top-half of this league for a majority. Unless of course his foreign "studies" get in the way.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 24-1

5) Kevin Hunt - 3rd Year - '07: 138-118 (2nd) - '08: 133-123 (12th) - 2007, 2008 Gus Johnson Rise And Fire Award (Best Overall Comments)
This league would probably not even exist if it were not for K-Hunt. His weekly comments are the life-line for our league. It is no mistake that he is the only holder of the prestigious Gus Johnson Award. Something tells me that he will be heavily challenged for that title in 2009, which makes sense historically. Michael Jordan said that the third championship was always the hardest to win for several reasons. Lack of motivation, others gunning for you even more, etc. And yes, I did just compare Michael Jordan to Kevin Hunt. And since all of you know this guy, then you all know how absolutely absurd and ridiculous that comparison truly is. Last year Hunt was the odds-on favorite to win it all. This year he does not have that pressure on his shoulders, which may or may not help.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 23-1

6) Jeff Normand - 3rd Year - '07: 129-127 (5th) - '08: 126-130 (16th) - 2007 Mr. Consistency Award
Less than five days ago, this league was prepared to move on without Jeff Normand. Thankfully, a last second change of heart brought him back and we couldn't be happier in his decision. He is a staple for ATS Pick 'Em. Back in 2007 he was known as Mr. Normand for the first half of the season, until he politely told me to knock it off. From that point forward, it has been and always will be Jeff. He is without question the biggest Cleveland Browns fan in the group. How many of you have an actual car painted to resemble a Browns helmet? As the inaugural winner of the Mr. Consistency Award, we have decided to do the honor of re-naming it to the Mr. Normand Award. It will be given to the person who shows the most consistency throughout the season, both in picking games and giving comments. That way "Mr. Normand" will always live on in this league. Go Browns.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 30-1

7) Brian Boesch - 2nd Year - '08: 139-117 (4th) - 2008 Free Agent Acquisition Award
When this guy takes over Tom Hamilton's job in a couple of years, this league should really take off. Think about the publicity it would receive? Without question, Brian is the best play-by-play broadcaster of the bunch. I had the distinct honor and privilege to call Southern Ohio Copperheads baseball games and Athens High School football games with him. The true mark of greatness is consistently, and in my humble opinion, Brian was consistently on top of his "broadcast" game. As I mentioned with Barnes earlier, Brian is one of those guys who you can sit down and have an intelligent sports discussion. It truly is a lost art. Boesch also managed to step in his first year in our league and take home fourth place, which was good enough for $40. Another big Browns fan, he is probably expecting an improvement in the Brown & Orange. If Boesch improves his '08 record as well, he might make more than $40.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 21-1

8) Andrew "Braves" Braverman - 2nd Year - '08: 111-145* (20th)
Braves was a late addition last season. He came in as the 20th member of our league, and unfortunately ended up in 20th place. Don't let that record fool you however, this man knows football. In fact, he talks about it for a living as Braves is a sports-radio talk show host in Nashville. He was one of my "mentors" at Ohio University, specifically with WOUB, Gridiron Glory, and Terry Schiavo. It is true that every time I reference Helen Keller, I think of Braves. Showing that this league truly is diverse, Braves will be our representative for the Chicago Bears, who might actually have a passing game for the first time since Erik Kramer? If Braves stays in it until the end this season, he will improve on that awful record and should give the top-five a run for the money.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 25-1

9) Josh Florence - 2nd Year - '08: 147-109 (1st) - 2008 Mel Kiper III Award
Still not sure how this happened ... at all. My younger brother acted as a replacement last season, mainly in order to preserve the payout, and ended up collecting big time. The pressing question is whether or not he can duplicate that success. Several league members have Josh in their sights, and they are looking to take him down. But, if Josh does the unthinkable and repeats, well, then not only would that be the craziest sporting moment of my life, but he should give up school and write a gambling book. He would sell at least a dozen copies based off this league alone. He can't do it again. He just can't. Can he?
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 32-1

10) Shane Kline - 2nd Year - '08: 137-119 (7th) - 2008 Wait Till Next Year Award
There was a very specific reason why I gave Shane the Wait Till Next Year Award. It signifies more than just hope for the upcoming season. It signifies more than just potential. It signifies the odds-on favorite to win it all. That's right, we are going with Shane Kline to take home first place this season. Maybe I just jinxed him? Maybe not. Shane is one of the many OU Alum in this group, and he still lives close enough to Athens that he gets to frequent there more than the rest of us. My money is on Kline to not only go to A-Town more than the rest of us, but to rack up more ATS wins as well. Will the "Odds-On-Favorite" Curse continue? Jeff Normand and Kevin Hunt were the first two odds-on favorites, and neither won any money.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 15-1

11) Chris Rapking - 2nd Year - '08: 130-126 (14th)
You have to respect loyalty right? In most cases, yes you do. But in Rapking's case last year his loyalty might have been misplaced. You see, Rapking picked his Cincinnati Bengals EVERY WEEK. No matter what. They failed to win a game until the second half of the season, and while they did manage a few covers, you have to wonder what would Rapking's record look like if it had not been for the Bengals? Another OU alum, Rapking and I have been on multiple Ohio University Intramural teams, as well as members of various fantasy leagues throughout the years. That's why I can honestly say I was not surprised to see Rapking with an above .500 record last season, and it's why I'm predicting him to improve on that mark this year. But you can go ahead and book-it, Rapking will live ... and die, by the Who-Dey sword.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 29-1

12) Andrew "Chewy" Reinhart - 2nd Year - '08: 133-123 (13th)
Things can change dramatically in one year. I was single, in school and driving a 1995 Dodge Intrepid one year from today. Now I am in a solid relationship, graduated (with a couple jobs), and driving a 2009 Honda Civic Coupe. As for Chewy, things have changed dramatically for him as well in just 365 days. A year ago, he was in the seminary, on his way to becoming a Priest. Today, he is no longer pursuing that path and is currently doing Youth Ministry back in Ohio. When you throw in all the changes Chewy's favorite team (Denver Broncos) made (new head coach, new quarterback, potential rookie running back, potential no star wide-out), and his life is almost a completely 360 degrees different than 2008. But, in order to find that ever-needing "constant," Chewy will be back with his "Chew On This" segment, typically dedicated to the linemen of the NFL. So the saying is true, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 27-1

13) Ryan "Po" Polito - 2nd Year - '08: 138-118 (5th) - 2008 Most Valuable Player Award
Uh oh, do you smell that? Must be a Pittsburgh Steeler fan nearby. All joking aside, this league is lucky to have Polito with us. It's no mistake that he won the '08 MVP award. He was always right around the top four. He was always turning his picks in on time and adding his input on league matters (they will arise, they always do). And, on top of all that, he authored, "Po's Knowledge Dropping," a special section that discussed all things NFL related. No one else shouldered that much responsibility last year. But, Polito might be the first one to trade all that in for a finish "in the money." Po ended in the unenviable position of being just one game out of the money. Luckily for him, his Steelers softened that blow by winning the Super Bowl, so no one should feel sorry for him, not in the least bit.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 19-1

14) Justin Whelan - 2nd Year - '08: 134-122 (10th) - 2008 Katy Perry Hot N' Cold Award
What Whelan did his first year was truly remarkable. At this point, you are well aware of his hot and cold streaks, but having the best weekly record for four consecutive weeks our of a group of 20 just shows how hot Justin can get. Upon closer look, it really wasn't that surprising however. He does more research than just about anyone. He finds ATS W-L records, on the road/home records, night/day game records, etc. When you do that amount of work, and you rely heavily on its' results, you probably will go crazy hot and cold throughout a 17-week season. If I could offer Whelan just one piece of advice it would be to continue doing all his homework, but weigh it equally with the "eye-test." In other words, use your own judgment after all is said and done. I don't know why I just told Whelan all of this. Watch him just destroy everyone this year.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 16-1

15) Jake Young - 2nd Year - '08: 130-126 (15th) - 2008 Mr. Consistency Award
This league allows opportunity first and foremost. An opportunity to pick every game. An opportunity to compete against others. And it also allows an opportunity to find your "voice." Jake Young is a classic example of finding one's voice. He came in to the league as a rookie, and left a seasoned veteran. Sure he didn't win any money, but he cemented his spot in the league by coming up with creative comments every week. So even though he failed to finish in the top four, his "voice" was heard loud and clear. Jake is still down at OU, and will be our lone Athens resident this season. As an avid Green Bay Packers fan you might think Jake would be by his lonesome in that regard as well. But he would be wrong. More to come.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 26-1

16) Jason "Fiz" Fazzone - 1st Year
15 veterans and 11 newcomers. Fiz is batting lead-off for the rookies. He joins Polito as the only two Pittsburgh Steelers fan amongst us, so expect some jawing when the Browns face off against the defending Super Bowl champs. Fazzone was actually the first "rookie" to join our league, as he asked me during the season last year if he could be included for 2009. And here he is. As with most of these new guys, I'm not really sure what to expect from Fiz. If history is any indication, then he might be in good shape. Polito, his Steelers brethren, finished just one game out of the money in his first season.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 35-1

17) Eric "Huggy Bear" Hug - 1st Year
Huggy Bear is the first Oakland Raiders fan of the bunch, so he can relate to what us Browns fans have endured the last five years or so. I met Eric through Ohio University Intramural Sports. Say what you will about their policies and procedures, but they have a bunch of great people working for them. Huggy Bear is no exception. Currently he resides in Valdosta, Georgia, a couple hours from none other than Matt Barnes. Picking football games is nothing new for Huggy Bear, he even has a blog entirely dedicated to picking college and pro games. But the question always remains the same, can he pick games ... against the spread?
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 33-1

18) Nick Lay - 1st Year
Last year I was excited the most for the arrival of Braves. This year I am excited the most for the arrival of Nick Lay. The reasoning with both are simple. They bring a fresh attitude, a smart sense of humor, and they are both two of the most unique individuals I have had the pleasure of becoming friends with. Lay is also one of the bigger Browns fans and is on record saying he was going to pick the Brownies 16 times this season, unless they played MIN, DEN, BAL, CIN, PIT, OAK, BUF, GB, CHI, DET, SD, KC, or JAX. Expect more of that from Lay this season. If this was an athletic contest, Lay might just be the top pick. Back in his prime Lay could hold his own on the golf course, basketball court, and the baseball diamond. Will he be able to hold his own in this endeavor? Stay tuned.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 18-1

19) Luke Polito - 1st Year
Don't know much about Ryan Polito's younger brother. I do know that he is a big Houston Texans fan, which makes me like him more than Ryan already. Luke Polito has two BIG things working in his favor. In the only two years this league has run, the winners were a Luke, and a younger brother of another member. Luke P. qualifies on BOTH accounts. These odds might be a little high, and the early report indicates the betting public likes Luke P. as a dark-horse candidate.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 39-1

20) Jamie Reamer - 1st Year
Last year Alex Lucius was the only head-coach of the group, and he used that advantage to a third-place showing. This season, the only former varsity quarterback (to my knowledge) in this group is Jamie Reamer. He is the fifth league member to be a 2004 Tiffin Calvert graduate, and is no stranger to picking games, as he was always a regular contestant whenever we organized a league back at Calvert. Reamer not only stands out because of his quarterbacking, but because he is a Notre Dame AND Cleveland Browns fan. They are a rare breed indeed. However, the only two winners in this league were both ND and Brownies fans, so Reamer seems to have a lot working his way.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 31-1

21) Jeff "Spider" Schaffer - 1st Year
Remember when I said that Hunt might be challenged for the Gus Johnson Award this season? Well, Schaffer might be his main competition. The biggest reason is because Schaffer is arguably the biggest Gus Johnson fan of the group, and the chance to win an honor named after his hero could propel him to topple Kevin. Schaffer also has a passion for being "that guy" in pictures. You know, the guy who is not supposed to be in the picture, but makes his way in right before the camera flashes. Don't ask me why I feel that talent will translate to success here, but I do. Lastly, Schaffer is the only Atlanta Falcon fan, but don't ask me if that success will translate.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 63:2 (31.5:1)

22) Erik "Smitty" Smith - 1st Year
Out of all the different nicknames in this group, I love Erik's the most. I've never met a Smitty that I haven't enjoyed drinking beers with. Smitty is currently attending the University of Xavier, as he is one of the few college students of the league. But, working in Smitty's advantage is the known fact that the previous two winners were both college students at the time. Apparently college students don't spend all of their time studying. Go figure.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 38-1

23) Corey "Prom Night" Taylor - 1st Year
Not sure how to describe this guy. So, let's look at five fun facts. One, he is a Cincinnati Bengals fan. Two, he looks like a dude you just want to punch in the face. Three, he has probably hit on your sister and/or mother. Four, he is a Meijer store manager, and damn proud of it. Five, despite his sloppy demeanor, he is not too bad of a basketball player. Does this look like a resume of a winner? Get back to me in January on that one.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 37-1

24) Anthony "All Day" Tynan - 1st Year
My MVL brother. Tynan and myself were the two reporters covering the MVL high school football league in 2005 for Gridiron Glory. The General and Kevin Culver (along with his sideburns) were two mainstays of that league. Moving forward, Tynan has won an Emmy for his work on G.G., is a contributing writer for Rotoworld, and is without question the best fantasy baseball player I know. What does this tell us about Tynan? Well, it says he is knowledgeable about sports, works hard, and succeeds. Sounds like a winning combination.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 17-1

25) William "Billy" Wakefield - 1st Year
If I could only use one fact to describe the essence of Billy, it would be rather easy. And it would be: Billy loves Blackberry brandy. Last year during an OU party, I bought a bottle of Blackberry with intentions of doing shots throughout the evening. When Billy found out there was Blackberry at the party, he became excited, and next thing I know, we are downing shots together. To make a long story short, that bottle did not last as long as I anticipated. Currently Billy moved to Texas and got himself a real world job. His part-time job, at least for the next four months will be picking NFL games against the spread.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 34-1

26) Chris "Woody" Woodard - 1st Year
I met this guy back in October when I visited Kevin up in Madison. That is one of the few things I remember from that trip. The other would be Bart ordering 20 volcano taco's for the eight-hour trip. Woody is a news reporter for the NBC station here in Madison, the same station where Kevin works. Woody also is a Green Bay Packers fan, so he joins Jake Young in that regard. Out of all the guys in this league, Woody was the toughest for the Las Vegas Oddsmakers. At the end of the day, it was very difficult to determine if Woody could turn some heads or not. Speaking of making you turn your head, have you seen Aaron Rodgers mustache? Wow.
ODDS TO WIN IT ALL: 32-1

So there you go. The 26 members of the 2009 NFL ATS Pick 'Em League. The 3rd edition. Best of luck to all. We start on September 10th. Giddy up.

Until next time, "read it, roll it, hole it."