Previewing the 2011 NFL Divisional Round

By: Luke Florence

Even though the 2010 NFL ATS Pick 'Em league disappeared from the King of Arguments, the league continued thanks to CBS Sportsline. It was competitive as always, coming down to the final game of the regular season. Yours truly walked away bloodied and bruised, but victorious nonetheless. The Bess Club fought the good fight, but finished one game back in second. Jake Young defeated Kevin Hunt on the 3rd game of the playoffs to take the bronze, while Ryan Polito ended up in 5th.

Although the playoffs don't count for anything, it has always been a long-term goal of mine to go undefeated picking not only winners and losers in the NFL's post-season, but also a perfect 11-0 against the spread. It hasn't happened yet, and only one time in the past five years have I made it past Wild Card Weekend flawless.

Last weekend I was sitting 3-0 both ATS and SU as the Green Bay-Philly was about to start. Right before kick-off that sinking feeling began to flood me. It's the same feeling that a college student has right before a test she is unprepared for. Or, the same feeling a boyfriend has right before his girlfriend ends things. It's a hopeless notion, and I had it right as the final game of the weekend started. I wasn't surprised when David Akers missed those field-goals, or when Mike Vick threw that game-ending interception. I was meant to lose that game ... and I did just that.

Goals can change and as soon as Green Bay knocked off Philadelphia, mine did as well. Short-term is to go a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the Divisional Round, while the long term is to rack up double-digit wins in at least one of the two categories. One wrong choice can derail both goals in a single instant. Let's see how long I survive. Giddy up.

BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH (-3.5)

My Pick: BAL (+3.5)

Final Score: BAL 20-17

As a Cleveland Browns fan I'd like to think the Browns-Steelers rivalry is one of the league's best, but it's hard to follow through on that notion when one team has been the other's doormat for the past decade. (I'm looking at all you Michigan fans now) Truth be told, this Baltimore-Pittsburgh feud has risen to the top. They are built in similar fashions on both sides of the ball, their coaches have similar philosophies and their weaknesses are hard to find.

The past three times these teams have suited up, they have been separated by exactly three points. That's the main reason for my ATS pick, but the reason for my SU pick is simply because I believe Baltimore's ceiling is a bit higher than Pittsburgh's. Besides, karma says Big Ben gets smoked out of the playoffs ... and I believe in karma.

GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA (-2.5)

My Pick: ATL (-2.5)

Final Score: ATL 34-17

I still don't know what to call it, but I've always relished when the local team lost. I have always disliked Ohio State, so whenever they lost, I rejoiced. When I moved to Madison, Wisconsin, I suddenly took pride in my Ohio license plate and rooted hard for the Buckeyes to knock off the Badgers. Last year when Kurt Warner defeated the Packers in the playoffs, I silently smiled. Maybe it's because most of my favorite sport teams lose so frequently that I appreciate the company. Maybe I just like it when the neighborhood is quiet.

That being said, Atlanta is the best team in the NFC, no question about it. I would go as far as saying they have the best QB as well. At the very least, they have the best QB at home, and since Matt Ryan will only be playing playoffs games at home until the Super Bowl, they become the odds-on favorite. Besides, I refuse to believe a team can win consistently in the playoffs when they can't run the ball, and I trust James Starks to put back-to-back solid games together as much as I trust the Cleveland Indians to make the playoffs before the Pope dies.

SEATTLE @ CHICAGO (-10.5)

My Pick: CHI (-10.5)

Final Score: CHI 33-10

Yes, I called the Seattle Seahawks win over the New Orleans Saints last week. Did I think it was a huge upset? Not really. The Saints did not impress me at all in 2010. Drew Brees did not improve from last year, and the Saints lost their ability to run the ball. Add in a home game for Seattle and the whole "Nobody believes in us" factor, and you have a perfect recipe for an "upset."

Yes, this is a perfect match-up for Seattle. They are facing a Chicago Bears team that is backed by Jay Cutler. A Cutler who has never been in a playoff game, a Cutler who has a sub .500 record for his career, and a Cutler who hasn't played well at all since mid-season. Having said that, this is also a perfect match-up for Chicago. Their defense can man-handle Seattle, and Cutler shouldn't be forced to press at all. Seattle was a nice story this year, and I certainly can't hate since their win over St. Louis won me the 2010 NFL ATS Pick 'Em, but their run ends here.

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND (-9.5)

My Pick: NYJ (+9.5)

Final Score: NE 26-21

If I'm 3-0 headed to this game I have zero doubts that the sinking feeling will return again. Mainly because this is the match-up that caused me the most problems. To be honest, I have no idea how this will play out. None. I love Tom Brady, and am rooting for him to win his 4th Super Bowl, but this is not the team the Patriots wanted to see here. Of all the teams left in the playoffs, I think the Jets have the best chance to upset New England ... I really do.

They can run the ball, they can get pressure on the QB, and their coach probably wants it more than the players do. It's easy to hate on Rex Ryan, and he certainly says idiotic things from time-to-time, but if I were a player, I'd love for him to be my coach.

At the end of the day this pick boils down to hoping for a close game with my preferred team winning it. This doesn't bode well for me, because as a wise man once said, "when you start betting on your hopes, that's when you know you are going to lose."

Until next time, "read it, roll it, hole it."