Saturday, September 29, 2007

2007 NFL Picks Week Four

I know we are right in the middle of football season, but believe it or not, the Cleveland Indians clinched the American League Central on Sunday afternoon. It was their first division title in six years. A very long six years. C.C. Sabathia was just a rookie then; now he is closing in on a potential Cy Young. Bob Wickman was the closer then; now he is out of baseball. Juan Gonzalez was the clean-up hitter then; he too is now done with baseball. The Indians were eliminated by the Seattle Mariners in five games. Our starting rotation looked like this: Bartolo Colon, Chuck Finley and C.C. It was just six years ago, but it feels more like twenty.

I have been a harsh critic of Tribe manager Eric Wedge. In the past I’ve questioned several of his in-game moves as well as his decision to forego shaving for an extended period of time. I’m still not a big fan of his, but I must admit, he’s a players manager. These guys enjoy playing for Wedge and it’s hard to argue with his results so far this season.

This will be the first time Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and believe it or not Casey Blake have ever played in the postseason. This inexperience could be viewed as a potential downfall for this team, but recent history has shown us that young teams with little experience have done very well in the playoffs. The 2002 Anaheim Angels, 2004 Florida Marlins, and the 2005 Chicago White Sox all were teams that had more youngsters than veterans and still managed to win the World Series. The common link of all those teams were strong pitching, which this years Tribe team has as well.

How far the Indians advance in the postseason will solely rest on the shoulders of pitchers C.C and Fausto Carmona. They have carried the Indians all year, and will have to do some heavy lifting to continue playing all the way until November. Yes the Indians have a decent line-up one through nine, but they have been inconsistent in stretches throughout the season. The one true constant has been the performances of Sabathia and Carmona.

I just wanted to touch base with the Indians (no pun intended). More to come when the playoff field is completely set. Until then, back to football.

There are several teams in the NFL that I’m just not sure of. I wrote back during week one that it usually takes four to five weeks to determine the legit from the non-legit. Some teams (Colts, Patriots, Cowboys, and Steelers) look to be well on their way to the playoffs, where as others (Packers, Bucs, Texans, Jaguars and the entire NFC West) could go either way and not be a surprise to the rest of us. The key is to simply survive the next couple of weeks in these picks until the real Slim Shady stands up.

We had a three-way tie for the week three winner in our picks. Grothaus, Sara, and Mr. Normand all put up 10 wins to just 6 losses. The tie-breaker question to determine the outright weekly winner (which means absolutely nothing) was which player would score the most fantasy points for week four. Kevin, who isn’t even in the running, decided to throw in his own two cents by picking Phil Dawson. The Normands’ on the other hand both chose Tony Romo. Since this technically does not mean anything, I decided to take matters into my own hands. Mr. Normand, you will be backing Daunte Culpepper this week. Sara, you will be riding John Joseph Harrington (Joey for short), and Grothaus, you get David Carr. Let the fun begin.

I hate to single out a particular bad performance, but what Barnes did last week was simply amazing. Barnes was the outright leader after two weeks. Entering week three he had a two game advantage on 2nd place. Barnes somehow managed not to pick one game correctly last week. Granted he did receive three wins, but those were all on ties. Barnes went 3-13 in week three and is now in 2nd to last place. Barnes says that he took some risks and thought he would do it early rather than later. Time will tell if this strategy pays off for Barnes. As for Bart, well Kanye West says it the best, “I know I got to be right now, cause I can’t get much wronger.”

STANDINGS
1) Mr. Normand 27-21 (10-6)
1) Sara 27-21 (10-6)
3) Devin 26-22 (9-7)
4) Luke 25-23 (9-7)
4) Grothaus 25-23 (10-6)
6) Kevin 24-24 (9-7)
7) Barnes 22-26 (3-13)
8) Bart 20-28 (7-9)

On to the picks.

Oakland @ Miami (-3.5)

The only bright spot in this game is that Gus Johnson is announcing. I have nothing else to mention about this game, so I thought I would take this opportunity to mention that Devin and I did our first radio show this past Tuesday night. Devin called me up at 7 p.m or so, asked if I wanted to do the show at 9 p.m., and I said sure. For not being prepared or having any idea how to work the station’s new computer, I thought we did a pretty decent job. We talked NFL and gave our week four picks, but the conversation also stretched to LOST and Arrested Development. Highlight of the show for me was towards the end when I made a bold prediction for the upcoming week, saying the Indians would finish with the best record in the majors. Devin then gave his bold prediction for the week, “The Dallas Cowboys will win the Super Bowl.“ Wow. After the show was over apparently we messed something up with the computer and the station played dead air for the next 12 hours. Oh well. Next week should be a lot better, with music and whatnot. I also will be taping the rest of OCR (Old College Roommates) so we can drink and laugh at ourselves later. Pick: Miami

OAK: Sara, Bart, Grothaus
MIA: Barnes, Kevin, Devin, Mr. Normand, Luke

Houston (-3) @ Atlanta

Matt Schaub returns!! The “What Could Have Been” game for all of the Atlanta Falcons. Houston played without their #1 WR Andre Johnson last week, and actually played the Colts tough. This week they will again be without the services of Johnson and I am a little hesitant to take them on the road. The only thing really holding me back is Falcons QB Joey Harrington. However, I have learned this week that Joey’s real name is John, which makes me like him a lot better now. He really should think about dropping the Joey. Pick: Atlanta

For the first time all year Barnes threw in some comments, which was a nice change of pace from the previous three weeks. Barnes took part in my attempt to organize NFL picks our freshmen year of college. We lasted until Thanksgiving, when it just fell apart. However, Barnes was in it to win it, and still sent in picks throughout the rest of the year. The e-mails he sent were great as he always had a smart comment for each game. One week he even put all of his picks in a poem format. In all actuality, his e-mails were reason for the decision to throw in comments this year. As of right now Bart has taken the lead in best e-mails, while Kevin is a close second. Anyways, Barnes dubs this game as “The Matt Schaub Revenge Show.” Good to have ya back Barnes.

HOU: Sara, Barnes, Devin, Bart, Grothaus
ATL: Kevin, Mr. Normand, Luke

Baltimore (-4.5) @ Cleveland

The Browns looked dreadful the first three quarters against the Raiders and still managed to almost pull out a road victory. Cleveland claims to be heading in the right direction, but last week they looked like they have for the greater part of the last eight years. Good teams find ways to win games when they are not playing their best. It is just that simple. Baltimore knows this slogan well. For the past three years they have rarely played to their potential but always find a way to win games. Last week they made Kurt Warner feel young again and still won a close game. Last year Cleveland had the Ravens on the rope but did not finish late in the contest. Oh, has anyone mentioned that Jamal Lewis used to play for Baltimore? This angle really should be covered more. I will be at this contest and am looking forward to the Browns being 0-7 in games that I attend. Go Browns. Pick: Baltimore

Kevin is back after a silent week, as he throws in his opinion on Derek Anderson, “After two INT’s against the Raiders, Derek Anderson has to play a great game against the Ravens to keep the home fans off his back. It doesn't matter that Baltimore has a great defense.” Barnes picks Baltimore because, “I vowed never to take Cleveland the entire year.” As far as Kevin is concerned, D.A.’s best friend this week will be Jamal Lewis. Barnes, well, join the crowd.

BAL: Sara, Barnes, Kevin, Devin, Luke, Bart, Grothaus
CLE: Mr. Normand

Chicago (-3) @ Detroit

Still scratching my head over Lovie Smith’s decision to pull QB Rex Grossman. I mean, all he did was have a stretch of about twenty completely awful games in a row. Why now? Anyways, Brian Griese is a back-up for a reason. Detroit might be without the services of WR Calvin Johnson, which could mean this game will have 13-3 written all over it. I’m picking the Bears because the Lions are not really that good. Trust me. Pick: Chicago

Since no one came through with any comments on this game, I thought I would fill everyone in on my fantasy team, “Brady’s Bunch.” After an opening week one win, I have lost the past two weeks and now sit at 1-2. My three running backs were too much for me to manage (Shaun Alexander, Ronnie Brown, and Adrian Peterson) that I desperately wanted to make a trade involving one of them. Things could not have worked out better for me as I managed to land Peyton Manning. I sent Adrian Peterson (who is a back-up now), WR Reggie Brown (has done nothing all year) and Big Ben Roethlisberger in exchange for WR Joey Galloway, RB Maurice Jones-Drew and QB Peyton Manning. I’m pulling a Mike Hart and guaranteeing a win this week.

CHI: Sara, Barnes, Devin, Luke, Bart, Grothaus
DET: Kevin, Mr. Normand

Green Bay (-2) @ Minnesota

If Brett Favre continues at this pace Chris Berman is going to have a heart attack by week six. Berman just said that rooting against Favre is like “rooting against America.“ Deep breaths Swami. Favre has a history of not playing well in Minnesota and this has “Obvious Game” written all over it. The odds makers are begging everyone to “back the Pack” in this one. You would think that Favre has eventually got to come back down to Earth. I really believe he is due to throw four INT’s, toss one B.S. TD to break Marino’s record, and then have an instant classic press conference. However, I cannot talk myself into backing Kelly Holcomb. No way. Pick: Green Bay

Kevin comes through with such a confusing line, I had to read it three times just to understand it, “Only a two point favorite?! Brett Favre will get that himself, as the Packers will put him in to rush a punt. Favre will rush the punter and tackle him in the end zone for a safety. Minnesota will be dumbfounded and John Madden will be so surprised that he'll choke on a turkey leg. "Back the Pack, 'cause the Pack is back!! -Ken Jones.” Yes, these are my friends.

GB: Sara, Barnes, Kevin, Devin, Mr. Normand, Luke, Bart
MIN: Grothaus

St. Louis @ Dallas (-12.5)

Nothing has gone right for the Rams this year. Steven Jackson is out. Orlando Pace is out. Marc Bulger has two broken ribs. Meanwhile, everything has gone right for the Cowboys. They just defeated the defending NFC Champions on the road last week and Tony Romo looks like the old Tony Romo. Everything points to the Cowboys. So much so that it scares me. Pick: St. Louis

Barnes meanwhile, has full confidence in the Cowboys, “No Stevie Jack, no problem for Tony Romo.”

Kevin’s Ballbuster Pick of the Week (0-2): St. Louis

Kevin returns with his Ballbuster pick by backing the Rams. Kevin took a week off from this to re-gather his thoughts and focus, yet he still seems to have zero confidence in this pick, “Ballbuster pick holds up to its name, as the awful-so-far Rams need to at least come close to the NFC's best-looking team (arguably). Odds of winning this game for me: 45-1.” Hunt, I’ll put $5 on those odds. You can pay me when you get back from Aussieville.

STL: Kevin, Luke, Grothaus
DAL: Sara, Barnes, Devin, Mr. Normand, Bart

New York Jets (-3.5) @ Buffalo

Trent Edwards, the Stanford standout, will be the Bills QB in this one, with J.P Losman out. Bills WR Lee Evans still has not done anything this year. The Jets meanwhile, are coming off a close win at home over the Dolphins. Speaking of New York, is anyone else as shocked as I am with this New York Mets collapse? I just don’t understand it. They were up seven games with 17 to go. Unreal. Anyways, the Bills are notorious for playing well at home. With or without Losman, I expect them to keep this close right to the end. Pick: Buffalo

Barnes has it right when he says, “worthless game of the week.” Don’t believe anyone is going to argue with you on that one.

NYJ: Sara, Barnes, Devin, Bart “J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS”
BUF: Kevin, Mr. Normand, Luke, Grothaus

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-2.5)

Jeff Garcia is at it again. Last year he re-energized the lifeless Eagles and he is at his old tricks again in Tampa. The question will be if he can keep it up for an entire season. He hasn’t done that since his Pro Bowl days with San Francisco. As for the Panthers, they will be going with David Carr in his first game in a non-Texan uniform. I expect Carr to play so well that Carolina will be screaming for Delhomme to sit for the rest of the season. Whoever wins this game gets early control of the ‘all-of-a-sudden’ weak NFC South. Pick: Carolina

Barnes follows my line of thinking, “David Carr’s re-birth,” while Kevin has no idea on this one, “when in doubt, go with the home team.” I thought it went ‘when in doubt, take the points.’ I guess we will see.

TB: Sara, Bart
CAR: Barnes, Kevin, Devin, Mr. Normand, Luke, Grothaus

Seattle (-2) @ San Francisco

Mentioned previously, I honestly have no idea about the entire NFC West. The entire division plays slow and sloppy football. This (-2) line indicates to me that even the odds makers don’t really have a clue about this division either. When push comes to shove, this game is going to come down to RB’s Shaun Alexander and Frank Gore. Whomever has the better game will more than likely lead their respective team to victory. For the sake of my fantasy team, I’m rolling with Alexander and the Seahawks. Pick: Seattle

Hunt got some bad information in Australia, believing that Alexander is not going to play, “No Alexander means no win on the road. Is San Fran that good? No, but I’m taking them this week.” Barnes on the other hand, decides to jump back on the Niners train that he has abandoned the last several years, “The Niners are back!!” Pick a team Barnes. Honestly.

SEA: Sara, Mr. Normand, Luke, Bart, Grothaus
SF: Barnes, Kevin, Devin

Pittsburgh (-5.5) @ Arizona

The Steelers have rolled through their first three weeks and I have not taken advantage. They have covered each and every week, and I have only picked them once. It would have been twice if it weren’t for those pathetic uniforms they wore in week two. That being said, I’m still not taking Pittsburgh, especially this week. Arizona’s head coach, Ken Whisenhunt, is Pittsburgh’s former Offensive Coordinator. Whisenhunt was the expected frontrunner for the open position when Cowher left, but the Steelers went with Mike Tomlin. Whisenhunt will have this Cardinals team well prepared. Pick: Arizona

Barnes comes through with the quote of the week, “See what happens when you hire a black coach ... good things happen ... unless you're the Browns.” Barnes is referring to Tomlin (who happens to be black, I really didn’t even notice) who is off to the Steelers first 3-0 season since Bill Cowher did the same thing in his first season. Hey Barnes, how is Art Shell? Hunt chimes in, “I hate making this pick each week.” I agree with ya Hunt, which is why I don’t.

ARI: Sara, Luke
PIT: Barnes, Kevin, Devin, Mr. Normand, Bart, Grothaus

Kansas City @ San Diego (-12)

I love Norv Turner. He takes over a 14-2 team and within three weeks, he has already matched last season’s loss total. That is special. I wonder how big Marty Schottenheimer’s smile is right now? He has got to be loving this. Back to the game, San Diego can not lose this one. They just can’t. As much as I would love to back Herm Edwards and take the points, I look for San Diego to explode and take out some much needed stress on the Chiefs. On the other hand, I wouldn’t mind Turner losing another one. Get on the bus Herm. Pick: San Diego

Bart is absolutely right, “A.J. Smith (San Diego’s GM) may be the stupidest GM ever.” True that Bart. Barnes follows my line of thinking, “I feel bad for KC, because LT and company are pissed.” Hunt gives a memorable quote, “The Chargers will come out in a big way. And LT will throw for more touchdowns than Phillip Rivers, AGAIN -- increasing my hatred for Norv Turner and his fantasy-team-ruining ways.” Sounds like someone has Rivers on their team. As my dad puts it, “sorry about your luck.”

KC: Bart
SD: Sara, Barnes, Kevin, Devin, Mr. Normand, Luke, Grothaus

Denver @ Indianapolis (-9.5)

I single-handedly talked Devin into taking the Colts on our radio show on Tuesday night. He thought 9.5 was too many points for the Colts to give, but then I reminded Devin of how the Colts just absolutely own the Broncos. In 2004 they smoked Denver 49-24 and in 2003 it was a 41-10 massacre. Peyton Manning is not scared at all with this Denver defense, and he has good reason. They are not as good as advertised. Last year the AFC West had three legit teams, right now do they even have one? Let me answer that one for you, no they do not. Pick: Indianapolis

DEN: Mr. Normand
IND: Sara, Barnes, Kevin, Devin, Luke, Bart, Grothaus

Philadelphia (-2.5) @ New York Giants

The Eagles finally came through last week against the Lions after I had jumped off of their bus. I hope it is not too early to jump back on? I really don’t care because I am getting on anyways. The Giants had no business winning that game against the Redskins last week. The city of New York is in for a miserable Sunday. First, the Mets are going to have a monumental collapse and the Jets and Giants will both lose. Or I could be completely wrong, and Philadelphia will have the bad day with the Phillies and Eagles both losing. Either way, as long as it is not Cleveland. Go tribe. Pick: Philadelphia

Bart must have been listening when I told him I loved his on-going reference to the movie Philadelphia as he says, “The team is finally better than the movie.” Hunt again takes out some fantasy team stress, “Only my #1 fantasy pick, Brian Westbrook, would strain an abdominal muscle by CUTTING, not by getting hit. He'll play, dominate and help the Eagles win.” Barnes plays the race card for the second time this week, “Nothing like a lil’ racism getting Donovan going.”

PHI: Sara, Barnes, Kevin, Devin, Mr. Normand, Luke, Bart, Grothaus
NYG:

New England (-7) @ Cincinnati

How good is this New England team? It is almost like Bill Belichick has a grudge on the entire league. There is no question that the 3/17th’s MVP of the league is Tom Brady, and 2nd place goes to Randy Moss. This team is sick. I said last week I would keep picking New England until they failed to cover. I would take them if this spread was 27.5. Did I mention this team was sick? Pick: New England

Barnes makes a scary comparison regarding the Bengals defense, “Cincy’s defense is about as good as OU’s … and that is sad.” Hunt finishes up the week four comments by predicting, “Brady to Welker is the tandem-of-the-week for week four.”

NE: Sara, Barnes, Kevin, Devin, Luke, Bart, Grothaus
CIN: Mr. Normand

Bart has inspired me to give him his own paragraph to talk about whatever is on his mind. This can only lead to great things. So here is the first of hopefully many segments I have titled, Bart’s Thoughts of the Week.

“I think Ed Furgol was actually talking about MY luck picking NFL games when he said, ‘My luck is so bad that if I bought a cemetery, people would stop dying.’ That’s all I got, I wish everyone good luck this week, except Barnes, I wish you the same luck that you had last week.”

Got to love the gamesmanship. Looking forward to next week already.

That’s all I got as well. Look for me at the Browns game this week and at all the Indians home ALDS games. Bring on the Yankees. Go tribe.

Until next time, “read it, roll it, hole it.”

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