The NFL is quite different. It typically takes five to six games before you can realistically determine the elite teams from the crap teams. For this very reason, the first few weeks of the NFL are a learning process for everyone. Teams are searching for an identity that will hold throughout the season, making it a roller coaster ride for their fans. This is why picking the winners of these games are very difficult in September.
For the next 17 weeks, football will rule all. They will dominate the sports scene as well as this column. Every single week myself, along with seven esteemed colleagues will pick every single NFL game. The twist is we will not necessarily be picking the winner of the game outright, but whoever will cover the spread. For example, this week Denver (-3) is favored to beat Buffalo by 3 points. If the final score is Denver 21 Buffalo 20, then Buffalo would be the correct pick. The Bills did not win the game, but they did not allow Denver to beat them by more than 3 points. It's a very simple notion, with the idea of the spread equalizing the match-ups. It is obvious that Indianapolis would be victorious over say, Oakland this year, but would they win by at least 14 points? That is the question we will be answering the entire year.
The Players
2) Devin Frank - Devin is a Tampa Bay fan, which puts him in the same boat as all the Browns fans the last several years. Very knowledgeable with sports, Devin and I will team up for the much anticipated debut of our radio show in the upcoming weeks. Will he have bragging rights the entire semester? Not if I have anything to say about it. Odds to win it all, 5-1.
3) Sara Normand - The only female of the group, but quite possibly one of the best fantasy players I've ever come across. Sara loves the Browns and the Cincinnati Reds. Whoops. Talk about picking the bottom feeders for each city. Odds to win it all, 11-2.
4) Michael Grothaus - Grothaus played on the golf team with me back at Calvert for three years and we both currently go to Heidelberg. Grothaus loves the Bills, but can only name about four players on their roster. Pretty good poker player, but I'm not sure about picking NFL games. Odds to win it all, 8-1.
5) Matt Barnes - Met this guy on my second day at Ohio University back in 2004 and have been great friends with him ever since. Barnes doesn't really have a favorite NFL team in my opinion, which is only to his benefit in this contest. His only downfall might be too much time spent with high school football (host for Gridiron Glory), and not enough focus on the NFL. Odds to win it all, 7-1.
6) Mr. Jeff Normand - As Sara's dad, Mr. Normand is the elder of this group. I consider myself a pretty big Browns fan, but Mr. Normand takes it to another level that I'm not familiar with. He actually painted his car to resemble a Cleveland Browns helmet! I got the privilege to ride in it last year and it was an unforgettable experience. Odds to win it all, 4-1.
7) Bart Borer - As a Michigan fan, Bart probably had a tough time last weekend. Don't worry though Bart, rescue is well on its way in the form of Notre Dame coming to visit. I would not be surprised to see Michigan win that game by 50. Bart is very familiar with picking college football and NFL games. Only thing is, I don't think he is familiar with picking the winners. Odds to win it all, 15-2.
8) Luke Florence - Yours truly. It's very difficult to handicap yourself, and I must admit I'm struggling to come up with the correct odds. Not going to lie, I'm pretty good at picking the winners straight up in the NFL, but this is the first time I've tried it against the spread. Not wanting to hype myself up and give these other guys bulletin board material, I'll go along the conservative route. Odds to win it all, 13-2.
The Format
We each contributed $17 to the pot, for a total of $136. After it is all said and done, the top three players will be in the money. Third place will receive their entry fee back of $17. Second place will double their investment and come away with $39. The winner takes home $80.
Each player had the opportunity to make a comment with their picks. Some did, others did not. For those that did, they will be posted on here. Each week standings will be available here as well. If the spread is tied, then the game will be ruled a push, and everyone who made a pick will receive a win.
Covering all my tracks, I'd say it's time to get this up and running. Giddy up.
Week One
New Orleans @ Indianapolis (-6)
The NFL seems to pit two good teams together to kick off their season. This match-up is no exception. One team, the Colts, just so happens to be the defending Super Bowl champion. The other, the Saints, lost to the Bears in last years NFC Championship game. I'm going to take the underdog in this game solely based on the reasoning that the Colts are being presented with their championship banner from last year. Pick: New Orleans.
Mr. Normand thinks otherwise, "Indianapolis should roll." We will see.
Indy: Hunt, Devin, Mr. Normand, Bart, Grothaus, Barnes. N.O: Sara, Luke.
Kansas City @ Houston (-3)
"You play to win the game. Hello!!" One of the all-time best press conferences was when Coach Herm Edwards busted out that aforementioned quote. I have a question for Coach Edwards, I know why you play the game, but, "why would I want to watch this game?" Kansas City has no quarterback and Houston has no running back. When both teams are bad, you should always go with the home team. Pick: Houston.
Bart wonders, "Why is Houston favored?" Well Bart, because Kansas City is just that bad. Houston has one thing that K.C does not, hope for the future. Mr. Normand even went as far as saying, "Going with Houston, Larry who?" He is referring to Chiefs RB Larry Johnson whose limbs might fall off before this season is done due to overuse.
Hunt comes through with the quote of the week. "Demetrius Jones (Notre Dame's starting QB last week) at quarterback still wouldn't be enough for the Chiefs to lose to the Texans. There's a reason running backs don't have to participate in the preseason and I'm fairly confident LJ didn't have to be there for training camp either."
K.C: Sara, Hunt, Bart, Grothaus, Barnes. Hou: Devin, Mr. Normand, Luke.
Denver (-3) @ Buffalo
I've noticed that the handicappers of these games tend to favor the home teams. I could not be any more thankful. Denver is a much better team and will cover easily. Pick: Denver.
Mr. Normand shows off his true colors when he says, "Still hate Denver, but going with the Broncos." I'm with him on both accounts. Hunt follows my line of thinking for this game, "It's not cold enough in Buffalo to play the home team card."
Den: Everyone. Buf: No one.
Pittsburgh (-4.5) @ Cleveland
For the third consecutive year I will be attending the Browns home and regular season opener. I've gone to five regular season Browns games, and they have not won any of them. Will this year be any different? Probably not. As a huge fan of Bill Simmons, I found myself laughing out loud when reading his last column. He writes, "The Browns are one year away from being turned around by Bill Cowher and his rejuvenated spittle." So true. Taking the safe route and going with the Steelers. If the Browns win then I will be ecstatic, but if they don't, I hope it's by five points or more. Pick: Pittsburgh.
Mr. Normand chimes in with a "Come on Brownies!," while Hunt makes a very astute observation. He says, "The fact that I'm missing the home opener for the first time in three years should be enough to at least make it close."
Pit: Devin, Grothaus, Luke, Barnes. Cle: Sara, Kevin, Mr. Normand, Bart.
Tennessee @ Jacksonville (-6.5)
The Jaguars recently released their long time starting QB Byron Leftwich, choosing to go with David Gerrard. The Jaguars are better at running back, wide receiver and defense by far. Everything points to the Jags. However, I'm not a big believer in Gerrard. When it comes to picking against the spread, quarterbacks rule. I'll run with Vince Young on this one. Pick: Tennessee.
Hunt comes through with yet another great quote, "Vince Young runs rampant, while Byron Leftwich laughs while watching the game with fellow recently-released quarterback Vinny Testaverde. Meanwhile, Testaverde cracks jokes about the 70's and Leftwich has no clue what he's talking about." If Hunt was as good at picking NFL games as he was coming up with great lines like that, he could quit school.
Ten: Sara, Kevin, Devin, Bart, Grothaus, Luke, Barnes. Jax: Mr. Normand, "Jags rule."
Carolina @ St. Louis (-1)
The NFC is chalk full of teams that I'm just not sure about. These two are prime examples. Both have quarterbacks that could play great or crappy, and no one would be surprised either way. They both have solid wide receivers and defenses that should keep them in just about every single game. The real difference in this game will be Rams RB Steven Jackson. He promises big things this year. I'll take him up on that, for now. Pick: St. Louis.
Car: Sara. Stl: Kevin, Devin, Mr. Normand, "Rams roll," Bart, Grothaus, Luke, Barnes.
Philadelphia (-3) @ Green Bay
I'm a big fan of Brett Favre. Maybe not to the level of say John Madden, but I'm a fan nonetheless. As Bill Russell said about Michael Jordan, the same can be applied to Favre, "He plays the game as it should be played." I'm not a fan of the talent around Favre though. He is not capable of carrying the Packers as he was back in the day. I'm also expecting big things from Donovan McNabb. He has a lot to prove and I think he will come through. Pick: Philadelphia.
If you are not familiar with Bart's work, then this should fill you in completely. He says, "The movie with Tom Hanks sucked balls." If you have watched that movie before, then that line is funny on a couple of different angles. Mr. Normand believes that Favre should have retired and Hunt busts out a quote from Ken Jones. "Back the pack, because the pack is back." Yes, these are my friends.
Phi: Sara, Devin, Mr. Normand, Bart, Grothaus, Luke, Barnes. G.B: Kevin.
Atlanta @ Minnesota (-3)
Let the dog references commence. Seriously though, this game comes down to one match-up. Atlanta QB Joey Harrington vs. Minnesota QB Tavaris Jackson. That's right, Tavaris Jackson. Ever heard of him? Me either. He just happens to be Minnesota's starting QB. As bad as Joey Harrington has been, I'll still take him over Tavaris Jackson any day of the week. Come on Joey. Just one time, please. Pick: Atlanta.
"Vikings will choke the dogs, I mean Falcons," is what Mr. Normand goes with. I guess he has heard of Tavaris Jackson. Hunt single-handedly makes me want to change my pick when he says, "Joey Harrington will throw three TD's and things look well for Bobby Petrino." Hunt saying this is almost guaranteeing that Joey will throw three INT's and Petrino will be screaming to pull a Nick Saban by halftime.
Atl: Kevin, Devin, Luke. Minn: Sara, Mr. Normand, Bart, Grothaus, Barnes.
Miami @ Washington (-3)
In a battle of two teams who have already locked up top ten draft positions for next year, I expect defenses to prevail here. The Dolphins have the better defense and they also have RB Ronnie Brown. Brown is starting on my fantasy team, so I have a lot is riding on him having a good game and season. Pick: Miami.
Hunt follows my line of thinking in an offensive struggle, "I might lose this pick because I could see Washington winning 2-0." No joke. Meanwhile, Mr. Normand shows tremendous confidence, "Picking the Skins, I'm sure I will pay for this." I hope he does too.
Mia: Bart, Luke, Barnes. Was: Sara, Kevin, Devin, Mr. Normand.
New England (-6.5) @ New York Jets
The Patriots were just five points away from going back to the Super Bowl last year. Apparently that is a down year for New England as they went out and grabbed WR Randy Moss, WR Wes Welker, WR Donte Stallworth, and LB Adalius Thomas. Watch out. This Patriots team is absolutely loaded. They are without a doubt the team to beat in the AFC this season. Did I mention they still have Tom Brady? Pick: New England.
Mr. Normand has it right, "You can't bet against the Pats." I might just pick them every single week. How can you not? Leave it to Hunt to find a way. "Too much of a good thing?? Tom Brady has too many weapons, delegates the ball too much, and Randy Moss finishes the game with more complaints than TD catches." Well Hunt, you may be right. I could see Moss grabbing two TD's and complaining three times. Bart chooses to keep it simple, "J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS."
NE: Sara, Mr. Normand, Grothaus, Luke, Barnes. NYJ: Kevin, Devin, Bart.
Tampa Bay @ Seattle (-6)
Sometimes the best way to pick these games is to keep it simple. Tampa Bay is awful. Seattle has Shaun Alexander. That should be enough to allow Seattle to win by at least a touchdown. Pick: Seattle.
Devin seems to have complete faith in his favorite team saying, "I won't pick Tampa Bay all year." Devin is still reeling from the draft where his Bucs went with DE Gaines Adams and could not make a deal for WR Calvin Johnson. It's going to be a long year for Devin and the entire Bucs organization. Mr. Normand just rubs it in saying, "Seattle beats the Devil Rays." Ouch.
Kevin's Ballbuster Pick of the Week (0-0): Tampa Bay (+6)
Last year, while I was "pretending" to make an NFL bet, I decided to ask Hunt for some advice. Note: Online gambling should not be encouraged. Kevin went completely random, saying, take the home team in the fifth game listed. It came to be known as Kevin's Ballbuster Pick of the Week.
Hunt goes on to say, "Jeff Garcia led this team to five straight wins to end last season and put Philly into the playoffs. Seattle wins this one close on a Josh Brown FG."
I lost that completely random game Hunt picked last year. I hope he gets off to a similar start this year.
TB: Kevin. Sea: Sara, Devin, Mr. Normand, Bart, Grothaus, Luke, Barnes.
Chicago @ San Diego (-6)
I have a rule which states if Rex Grossman is your quarterback, I will pick the other team. It's just that simple. Besides that rule, this is not a good match-up for the Bears. San Diego will neutralize Chicago's defense with L.T and Grossman is good for at least three INT's and four fumbled snaps. Count it. Pick: San Diego.
It's scary to think of all the times Hunt and I see eye to eye on matters like this. Hunt adds, "What defense?" in reference to Chicago. Mr. Normand says, "Go Chargers, you got to love that Charger blue." He is absolutely right. That powder blue uniform that S.D wears is the best professional uniform in all of sports. Hands down.
Chi: Sara, Devin, Bart. S.D: Kevin, Mr. Normand, Grothaus, Luke.
Detroit @ Oakland (-1.5)
I ranked the entire NFL last week, and I put the Oakland Raiders dead last. That franchise is going nowhere fast. They still have not signed JaMarcus Russell, their #1 draft pick yet. They signed QB Daunte "Throw It" Culpepper and will start RB LaMont Jordan. Making matters even worse, Culpepper is not even going to start! Oakland will go with Josh McCown. All signs point to Jon Kitna and the Detroit Lions. Pick: Detroit.
Hunt throws in, "The only Detroit fans who aren't already wearing the opposition's jersey are those who were dumb enough to buy a Kitna jersey or those who were hopeful enough to get a Calvin Johnson." Is it possible for the Lions to actually perform better than the Tigers? If you include expectations in this question, I would lean towards the affirmative.
Mr. Normand provides one of those accidentally humorous moments when he says, "Going with Culpepper, he has returned!" Whoops.
Det: Kevin, Devin, Bart, Grothaus, Luke, Barnes. Oak: Sara, Mr. Normand.
New York Giants @ Dallas (-6)
The Cowboys are the better team here. They have a better defense, running back, and wide receivers. The only problem is that the New York Giants have a history of playing so well at the beginning of the year and then fading towards the end. The greatest lesson you can learn from history is to not repeat past mistakes. I'll roll with history on this one. Pick: New York Giants.
Mr. Normand decides he likes the Cowboys, but not the six points. Thus the beauty of picking games against the spread. Typically the pick here would be Dallas to win, but usually these division rivals play close games, so picking the spread winner becomes a challenge. Bart however does not see this as being a difficult game to pick. "Dallas in a rout." Let's hope for Tony Romo's sake that you are correct Bart. Romo would hate to see this game come down to a last second field goal.
NYG: Sara, Mr. Normand, Grothaus, Luke. Dal: Kevin, Devin, Bart, Barnes.
Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-2.5)
In the second battle of AFC North teams this week, the Ravens travel to Cincy. Baltimore brings with them a solid defense as usual, and Cincy brings a team with an extensive rap sheet. Carson Palmer has not done well against the Ravens in years past, and I again look for this to continue. The Bengals have a pretty porous defense, so look for Willis McGahee to have a solid game. Pick: Baltimore.
Mr. Normand sums this game up perfectly, "Which team do I hate more?" The answer, Art Modell.
Bal: Sara, Kevin, Devin, Bart, Luke. Cin: Mr. Normand, Grothaus, Barnes.
Arizona @ San Francisco (-3)
The 49ers are the team that was middle of the road last year who went out and acquired a ton of talent, starting with CB Nate Clements. Whether or not this team thrives will depend on two things. Can Alex Smith stay out of his own way, and can Frank Gore stay healthy? If the answers to those questions are yes, then expect San Francisco to contend for the NFC West title. Meanwhile, Arizona always seems to be the trendy team to pick each year. I'll jump on the Arizona train early. Pick: Arizona.
Mr. Normand says, "I think the 49ers will do well this year, but I probably just jinxed them." He is not the only one who thinks the Niners will have a good season, a lot of the so called "experts" on ESPN follow this same line of thinking. All I know is that if they all think San Fran will be good, chances are they won't. Things usually have a habit of working out that way.
Ari: Devin, Bart, Luke. SF: Sara, Kevin, Mr. Normand, Grothaus, Barnes.
That's all she wrote for this massive column. I started writing this one hour before the kick off of the Colts-Saints game. It is now half-time. Looks like I'll be prepared for all of my classes tomorrow. Grothaus failed to pick the Miami-Washington game, and I guess he's right, there won't be any winners in that one.
Until next time, "read it, roll it, hole it."
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