2008 NFL ATS Pick 'Em: Week One

Week one. A new beginning. A fresh start. Underachieving teams a season ago such as Baltimore, Philadelphia and New Orleans look for redemption. Underachieving league members such as Barnes, Bart and Grothaus look to try and reverse their fortune. New league members such as Braves, Chewy, Shane and Bursa try to make their mark from the onset.

No matter how you slice it, Sunday's are back. Football is in full swing.

Instead of the poll question on the sidebar, I will post the standings for the league. Speaking of polls, based on the results from SportsNation the favorites are: Sara, yours truly, Polito, Barnes, and Braves. We will see.

Enough from me, this is a long enough post as it is. One important note however. Brandin Bursa cannot be reached and has not gotten his picks in. He does have a knee injury I do believe, but has not sent any picks to me. If he gets in touch to me sometime soon, I will update the league. More on this developing situation as it comes.

Enjoy, and thanks to everyone who got their picks in. Best of luck.

Detroit (-3) @ Atlanta

I've said it before, and I will say it again. This is a quarterback's league, especially with spreads. A basic rule in making these picks is not backing a rookie QB in his first start. That means I will not be taking Matt Ryan this week. Not going to lie, he didn't impress me that much at Boston College, so it's safe to say I have low expectations for the young quarterback.
MY PICK: DET (-3)

THE PROMISE'S PROMISE: *ATL +3* - This is where Matt Barnes will give his lock for the week.

"The Lion King may be my favorite movie but I'm not stupid. Matt Ryan was great in college. The Lions are pretty much a college team. Falcons win by at least seven. And that's a Promise."

We will be keeping a running record for this and all of our special picks of the week.

COMMENTS: (my reaction/response to them in bold)

Bart: "This may be the year that Detroit doesn't suck. This also may be the last time that I pick Detroit for the rest of my life. This first game is going to have a very large impact on how I pick Detroit games for the rest of the season and for the rest of my life." Unlike Bart, my pick in this game was more of a pick AGAINST Atlanta than FOR Detroit.

Kevin: "No Lions will have their bags at the Atlanta airport. Meanwhile Tatum Bell is wanted for identity theft. And somehow LeCharles Bentley is arrested for being the get-away driver and hits Kellen Winslow on his motorcycle." An early candidate for quote of the week.

Lucius: "Well I'll start off my perfect season by picking detroit. I find myself lost for words on this pick for the mere fact that you can still find lions tickets on ticketmaster. Wow grow a fan base." Let me have the honor of introducing Alex Lucius to the league. He has a full slate of comments.

Chewy: "I have got to go with the experienced QB in week 1. Matt Ryan may become a top QB, but this will be his first game. Their starting C is almost definitely out with an injured back, so I expect their line play to be sub par." Make sure to check out Andrew's "Chew On This" at the end of these picks. This man knows his football.

Jeff: "Going with the Lions - they beat the Bengals in preseason so they must be good!"

PICKS:

DET: Luke, Bart, Polito, Shane, Rapking, Chewy, Justin, Sara, Curtis, Brian, Grothaus, Devin, Jeff, Lucius, Bursa, Braves

ATL: Kevin, Barnes, Jake

Cincinnati (-1) @ Baltimore

See the Detroit game, and you will understand my pick. Let me go on record saying that Joe Flacco will have a better career than Matt Ryan, but he is still a rookie QB.
MY PICK: CIN (-1)

Devin: "Chad Javon Ocho Cinco scores a TD and he better have Ocho Cinco on the jersey." That's right, I almost forgot about Ocho Cinco. For those of you that don't know, Chad Johnson legally changed his name to Chad Javon Ocho Cinco, just so he can wear Ocho Cinco on the back of his jersey. I hate the Bengals, but I like Chad. He's just having some fun.

Sara: "I wonder how many 'Touchdown: Ocho Cinco's' we'll hear this year.

Bart: "I hate the Bungals. I hate their bandwagon fans. I hate "Who Dey". I hate Chad Ocho Cinco (That is his real name which makes me hate him more now, even though I wasn't sure that was possible before he pulled the stunt.) I hate Chris Henry. I hate the music they play on the loud speakers during games. I hate their colors. That's about all, I am picking with my
heart, not my head...usually not a good way to win betting pools." Three consecutive comments on Ocho Cinco. Love him or hate him, he always has people talking.

Kevin: "Are the Bengals really Joe Flacco-bad?"

Chewy: "Didn't want to pick them with Troy Smith sitting out, but I think Cincy with all its discipline issues and poor defense is a burning ship that is starting to finally sink. I expect Harbaugh to have a good start as Baltimore's head coach too." I'm with Chewy thinking Baltimore will improve with Harbaugh, but I think Cincy should be able to handle a rookie QB in his very first start.

Jeff: "I think the Bengals will win, but I am going with the Ravens. I love seeing all the pain at work each Monday!" God bless Browns fans.

CIN: Luke, Kevin, Polito, Barnes, Rapking, Justin, Grothaus, Devin, Bursa, Braves

BAL: Bart, Shane, Chewy, Jake, Sara, Curtis, Brian, Jeff, Lucius

Seattle @ Buffalo (PK)

Two things are working in the Bills favor. One, they played well at home all of last year. And two, home teams went 11-5 in week one against the spread. I'll take my chances based solely on those two reasons.
MY PICK: BUF (PK)

Devin: "Seattle is the better team." But what about ...

Bart: "I think Buffalo is going to surprise some people this year." For the new members this year, what Bart is doing right now is truly a phenomenon, picking games after analyzing the teams. He flipped coins one week. He based his picks off of a Bone Thugs N' Harmony song one week. He sent me texts saying "all the home teams except New England" for a couple of weeks. Either way, it wouldn't be the same without him.

Kevin: "As Ken Jones always told me, 'When in doubt, go with the home team.'" Ah yes, the first Ken Jones reference. Only took the third game of week one to get it in.

Chewy: "I think Seattle is a better team, but with Engram and Branch out, I am not sure how good of targets Hasselback will have (and their starting ILB is out)." If Chewy wasn't going to be a Priest, he would make a great John Clayton or Chris Mortensen.

Jeff: "I like the Bills, they might sneak up on some teams this year."

SEA: Barnes, Justin, Jake, Sara, Brian, Devin

BUF: Luke, Kevin, Bart, Polito, Shane, Rapking, Chewy, Curtis, Grothaus, Jeff, Lucius, Bursa, Braves

New York Jets (-3) @ Miami

Chad Pennington gets the start against the team who dumped him for Brett Favre. Unfortunately for Chad, he won't be missed. Yeah he does know the Jets playbook probably better than Favre does, but Miami just does not have good players, it's that simple. Besides, these Jets, if they stay healthy, will be competing for a playoff spot.
MY PICK: NYJ (-3)

Bart: J-E-T-S, JETS! JETS! JETS! - Bill Parcells looks like a disgruntled Michelin Man and he seems like is an A-Hole as well." I heart my friends.

Barnes: "Why is this spread only three? Seriously?" Yeah that scares me a little bit though. It seems as if the oddsmakers are trying to bait us into picking the Jets.

Lucius: "Ill take the jets with favres old ass at the helm. Miami is god awful and have made practically no improvements and traded away arguably one of the best de's in the league."

Jeff: "Bet against Brett Favre? This old man picks his favorite old QB, J--E--T--S JETS JETS JETS!" That is a very catchy phrase.

NYJ: Everyone EXCEPT Jake.

MIA: Jake

Kansas City @ New England (-16.5)

Ah yes, the 18-1 New England Patriots. As crazy as it sounds, the Pats are a bit of a mystery this year. However, last year, people were a little scared off by the large New England spreads, and it cost them, especially early on. I'm going to take New England until they stop covering.
MY PICK: NE (-16.5)

KEVIN HUNT'S BALLBUSTER PICK OF THE WEEK: *KC +16.5* - This pick originated two years ago where Hunt just randomly picked a game, I bet on it, and it was deemed a "ballbuster" pick, because of how crazy it was. Needless to say, I only bet on it once.

"Taking the underdog in the sixth game listed."

That's how it works. He can get a little crazy with his random thinking, but this week Hunt took the simple approach. Again, we will document how well he does.

Bart: "After the season they (Pats) had last year, they are going to have to prove that they shouldn't be picked, as opposed to proving that they should." Totally agree.

Lucius: "New England is almost an unstoppable machine and I dont believe that Kansas City is gonna be the ones to stop it."

Jeff: "Going against my better judgement but give me the Chiefs. Pats still not ready." Jeff was one of those who did NOT pick the Pats early in the season. He's doing it again here.

KC: Kevin, Rapking, Justin, Jake, Sara, Jeff, Bursa, Braves

NE: Luke, Bart, Polito, Shane, Barnes, Chewy, Curtis, Brian, Grothaus, Devin, Lucius

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-3.5)

Taking the home team. If the Saints are going to be as good as I believe they are capable of, then they should win this contest comfortably.
MY PICK: NO (-3.5)

Bart: "New Orleans is exactly the opposite of New England." I can see where Bart is going with this, but I'm not big on Tampa Bay this year. If you aren't getting better, you are getting worse.

Kevin: "Brees-to-Shockey produces two TD's in this game."

Lucius: "Let's just say New Orleans is lucky that Hurricane Cleveland isn't coming to town this week. I gotta go with the Saints in a blowout." Yes, these are my friends.

Jeff: "Could be Hurricane Brees that hits the Superdome this time. Bucs get drenched." Proof that the Hurricane reference can be spun several different ways and still be effective.

TB: Bart, Chewy, Justin, Brian, Devin, Bursa

NO: Luke, Kevin, Polito, Shane, Barnes, Rapking, Jake, Sara, Curtis, Grothaus, Jeff, Lucius, Braves

St. Louis @ Philadelphia (-7)

This was the hardest game for me to pick. On one hand, the Eagles don't have a single receiver. On the other, they do have Brian Westbrook and a healthy Donovan McNabb. On one hand, the Rams were pathetic last year. On the other, they can't get any worse, you would think. Still, I'll take the Eagles because I just wouldn't be comfortable backing the Rams.
MY PICK: PHI (-7)

Devin: "I feel actual sympathy for Marc Bulger." Devin is just flat out bad at spelling. Lucky for him, he's much better at making picks.

Bart: "When in doubt, take the points." Or is it, when in doubt take the home team?

Kevin: "Not sure I believe the Eagles yet, though I trust the Rams about as much." Seems like I'm not the only one struggling with this game.

Chewy: "They will win, but I am afraid the game will be very close and the spread will not be covered. I can't pick against them though with a healthy McNabb." Ah, the beauty of ATS. Obviously the straight-up pick would be the Eagles, but ATS?? Who knows.

Jeff: "McNabb will silence his critics, at least this week."

STL: Kevin, Bart, Polito, Rapking, Justin, Jake, Grothaus, Lucius

PHI: Luke, Shane, Barnes, Chewy, Sara, Curtis, Brian, Devin, Jeff, Bursa, Braves

Houston @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)

Last year, unlike my success with New England, I struggled with the Steelers. I absolutely love what they did in the draft. They are the team to beat in the AFC North, make no mistake. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.
MY PICK: PIT (-6.5)

Bart: "Every time I see the word Pittsburgh, I am surprised that it has an "h" on the end of it." Sounds like Bart.

Kevin: "I hate the Steelers." Spoken like a true Browns fan.

Curtis: "Those dirty bastards." See my comment on Kevin's quote.

Lucius: "Homos." See my comment on Curtis' quote.

Chewy: "I love Houston's D-Line, but Pittsburgh is still a better overall team. They are also the most healthy team in the NFL to start the season." A nice change of pace from the Pittsburgh bashing.

Jeff: "Pitt at home in their first game, a lock for sure. I can still hope for a miracle though." Go Browns.

HOU: Brian, Jake

PIT: Everyone else.

Jacksonville (-3) @ Tennessee

Very intriguing game between two AFC playoff teams from a year ago. A lot of people are very high on the Jags, some even consider them the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. As for me, I think they are good, but not THAT good. However, they are good enough to cover this spread.
MY PICK: JAX (-3)

Devin: "This game has 7-6 written all over it."

Kevin: "Watch the Jags this year, cause no one in Florida will be."

Bart: "I think they (Jags) may give Indy a run for their money this year in the division race." A lot of pundits share Bart's thinking here. Maybe I'm just afraid of change, but I don't see it.

Lucius: "I hate Tennesee." The odds of Lucius spelling 'Tennessee' right were probably around 100:1. He got close, but needed just one more 's.'

Chewy: "Vince Young is a winner. He will come out of his sophomore slump this year and plays to his potential." I'll take 'Things that won't happen' for $300 Alex.

Jeff: "A tough game, but the Jags a little tougher."

JAX: Luke, Kevin, Bart, Polito, Shane, Barnes, Rapking, Jake, Justin, Brian, Devin, Jeff, Lucius, Bursa

TEN: Chewy, Sara, Curtis, Grothaus, Braves

Dallas (-4) @ Cleveland

This is THE game for week one, no doubt. With all of the Browns fans in this league, just about EVERYONE had a comment about this match-up. I'm taking the Cowboys as insurance. If the Browns win/cover then I'll be thrilled. If not, then at least I assured myself one victory. Also, this will probably be the lowest (-4) you can get Dallas all year.
MY PICK: DAL (-4)

Devin: "Luke Florence is at this game + God hates Luke Florence = Pick Dallas." And we have another contender for quote of the week.

Bart: "This game will have significant implications on how I pick both of these teams games for the rest of the season."

Barnes: "Anderson's concussion has brought him back to the real world ... where he is a bad QB." I wouldn't mind getting to see Brady Quinn play at sometime this year.

Kevin: "Derek Anderson will throw a touchdown pass so far over Pac Man Jones's head that 'Adam' will end up outside the stadium at a strip club trying to defend the pass ... giving a whole new meaning to the thought that Cleveland is a 'Dying City' and providing the Cleveland Police Department another reason to be worried on gameday - along with the drunken tailgaters and fears of the river starting on fire again." You wonder how he comes up with these things. Then you spend five minutes with him, and you just know.

Curtis: "The best of the best, CLEVELAND BROWNS." Excitement.

Lucius: "I'm a Cleveland fan, lets get drunk." I'm pretty sure those were the first words that Big Al ever spoke.

Justin: "Cowboys, only because I got the line at four. I wanna lose this pick so bad." Looks like we had the EXACT same line of thinking.

Brian: "I couldn't justify taking the Browns and only getting four." See Justin's comment.

Chewy: "Cleveland should be a playoff team, but, with Jones and Zack Thomas added to an already good Dallas defense, they should be able to contain Clevelands outstanding offense."

Jeff: "Dallas, this is killing me, but the Browns are so banged up already, I can't see them playing four good quarters." I can't believe Jeff went against the Browns.

DAL: Luke, Bart, Polito, Shane, Barnes, Chewy, Justin, Jake, Sara, Brian, Grothaus, Devin, Jeff, Bursa, Braves

CLE: Kevin, Rapking, Curtis, Lucius

Carolina @ San Diego (-9.5)

I have no idea on this one. None. The Panthers don't have Steve Smith, and the Chargers are a bit banged up as well, especially on their offensive line. I went with San Diego initially, but then switched to Carolina and took the points. I could see the Chargers winning, but I'm hoping a healthy Jake Delhomme will keep it close.
MY PICK: CAR (+9.5)

MAXINE HUNT PICK OF THE WEEK: *SD -9.5* - This pick started last year when Kevin asked his mother for some help picking games. She actually did quite well and was a big reason Kevin finished in second. I wonder if she got any of his winnings?

"Mom: I'll take the Chargers.
Me: Any particular reason??
Mom: Well, because of their red uniforms ... cause Wisconsin has red uniforms and we were just up there and Wisconsin is on my mind right now.
Me: They actually don't have red uniforms, but we'll go with it anyway??
Mom: Oh, they don't?? Oh yeah, they have yellow ones though right??
Me: No, actually they have dark blue, white and baby blue, but no red."

How great is that?

This is the last of the three special picks. My money is on Maxine Hunt ending up with the best record of the three.

Devin: "SD got off to slow start last year and their stars are coming off injuries."

Bart: "I am picking the Chargers based on the fact that it is my favorite city that I have ever been to and nothing else."

Lucius: "Whats up with squirrels?" I proudly present to you, Alex Lucius.

Chewy: "LaDainian Tomlinson." Enough said.

Jeff: "Chargers roll big time in this one. Get out the power blue jersey." Those are fantastic jerseys.

CAR: Luke, Shane, Barnes, Justin, Brian, Grothaus, Devin, Lucius

SD: Kevin, Bart, Polito, Rapking, Chewy, Jake, Sara, Curtis, Jeff, Bursa, Braves

Arizona (-3) @ San Francisco

Kurt Warner and J.T. O'Sullivan. No wonder Daunte Culpepper retired. These are two of the starting QB's in the NFL. Crazy.
MY PICK: ARI (-3)

Devin: "I just entered a sweepstakes to start at QB for SF in the opener."

Bart: "Same deal, I am picking the Cardinals because I want to move to Phoenix. San Francisco has way too many weird people. It's a true fact not a misguided stereotype, I saw it first hand."

Kevin: "J.T. O'Sullivan is going to shove this pick down my throat ... or not." And now go see Kevin's comments for the next game.

Lucius: "San Francisco for the mere fact that I watched a documentary on Alcatraz two nights ago and well it was pretty sweet." Quote of the week just got a little bit more interesting.

Jeff: "This JT at QB could be my sleeper player of the year!" Too ... many ... jokes

ARI: Luke, Kevin, Bart, Polito, Rapking, Barnes, Chewy, Jake, Sara, Curtis, Grothaus, Devin, Braves

SF: Shane, Justin, Brian, Jeff, Lucius, Bursa

Chicago @ Indianapolis (-9.5)

This is one of those games where you talk yourself into taking the points, but then the Colts come out and score a quick TD, and all of a sudden you wish you backed Indy.
MY PICK: IND (-9.5)

Bart: "Da Bears! - Based on the fact that one of the greatest SNL skits of all time was about them." Ditka.

Kevin: "Kyle Orton is going to shove this pick down my throat ... or not." Hunt is backing J.T. O'Sullivan AND Kyle Orton. I have no words.

Jeff: "The Colts will shoot sky high at new Lucas Oil field, just like my BP gas card bill - four bucks a gallon??" That's right, the Colts are playing at 'The Luke.' How cool is that?

CHI: Bart and Justin

IND: Everyone else.

Minnesota @ Green Bay (-3)

Another interesting game. Vikings have a tremendous defense but no quarterback. Tavaris Jackson on the road? I think not. Give me the Packers.
MY PICK: GB (-3)

Devin: "Minnesota on the road to the Super Bowl." They do have a defense of that caliber and a great running back. But NO QB and NO WR's.
Kevin: "Homer pick here. Meaning, my home is in Wisconsin now. My guess is that this pick will be a win for everyone anyway - GB 3, MIN 0."

Lucius: "I'm gonna go with the vikings because of the fact Aaron Rodgers sat in the draft forever." This start really has been a long time coming. He has a lot to prove, but even though it is his first start, he's got plenty of experience learning from Favre.

Chewy: "They didn't take the best QB in NFL history and the gods of football will punish them in this game as whoever they have playing QB will not be able to fill Favre's shoes." Had they gotten Favre, this would have been the team EVERYONE would have picked to go to the Super Bowl.

Jeff: "I like the Vikings Defense and think they will spoil Rodgers debut."

MIN: Polito, Shane, Barnes, Rapking, Chewy, Justin, Jake, Sara, Curtis, Brian, Devin, Jeff, Lucius, Braves

GB: Luke, Kevin, Bart, Grothaus, Bursa

Denver (-3) @ Oakland

And finally, we've reached the last game of the week. Oakland doesn't have a clue, and the Broncos are looking impressive. This one is easy.
MY PICK: DEN (-3)

Bart: "I am picking the Raiders on the basis that I am handing out a one week punishment to the Broncos for allowing the DNC to be held at their stadium this year." Who says you can't mix politics and sports?

Kevin: "Raider Nation is really pulling this line down I guess." It is one of those unusually low point-spreads. Maybe the oddsmakers don't have a clue yet either.

Chewy: "Denver, I think you all know why." Got to respect the loyalty. Although, it is easy when you also get to pick against Oakland as well.

Jeff: "Denver rolls, I think it is another long year for the Raiders." Word.

DEN: Luke, Kevin, Polito, Shane, Barnes, Rapking, Chewy, Jake, Brian, Grothaus, Devin, Jeff, Lucius, Bursa, Braves

OAK: Bart, Justin, Sara, Curtis

SPECIAL SECTIONS: This is where we will put the special sections that some of the league members have written for the week. Starting things off will be Chewy's 'Chew On This."

CHEW ON THIS - VOLUME ONE - A piece dedicated to the linemen of the NFL - By: Andrew Reinhart

To start off the season I wanted to share a few sentences about my Broncos O-Line (don't worry, this should be the only time I mention them all season). The rebuilt and healed O-Line in Denver is the best reason for my belief that we will return to the playoffs this year. Tom Nalen (the last player on the roster who played with Elway) is returning at center coming off a torn groin (which he played an entire game on because he is a true man and was the only center on the active roster). We also used our first draft choice to get Ryan Clady to anchor our line into the next decade. He looked great in preseason, and his mix of strength, size, and athleticism should make him a viable candidate for rookie of the year (even though he will get no attention because is a lineman). We have also upgraded at right tackle with Notre Damne standout Ryan Harris moving into a starting spot in his second season (you might remember him from the first season of MTV's True Life). They are joined by two solid and experienced veteren Guards Ben Hamilton (eight year veteran) and Chris Kuper (our best new starter of last season). This squad will keep Cutler safe for a third year in which he will put up the best numbers for Denver since Elway player, and they should be able to open up holes big enough for talented young and unproven backs like Selvin Young and Andre Hall.

BART AND ALEX'S THOUGHTS FOR THE WEEK - You think you know, but you have no idea, this is the life of Bart and Alex - By: Bart Borer and Alex Lucius

BART'S THOUGHTS:

Thoughts for the Week (and for the summer): I managed to pull off a 3.66 GPA for summer quarter. To some of you that may have been/will be a regular occurrence during school, for me it is not and is worth mentioning. Included in that was my first ever "A" in an English class where I was the one that wrote all of my own papers. On to more exciting things. I need to give a shout out to my last buddy to swipe his V-Card. That fact that he did it doesn't mean anything to me, it's the way he did that earned him this shout. Other than that it has been a pretty quiet summer. Good luck to everyone (except Barnes), and good luck to the Bangladeshi Cricket team as they play a home match against the tough Australian team this week. Peace. Love. Hot Dogs.

ALEX'S THOUGHTS:

In closing I am getting ready to head to a bachelor party in west virginia with Bart. That is the first time I've ever used the words bachelor party and Bart in the same sentence. I think that is a complete formula for one hell of a night. I can only imagine what is about to go down, but I can imagine its going to involve bart and me drinking 10 too many and doing something absolutely fantastic.

THAT'S ALL SHE WROTE

Well, there you go. The week one column. What an experience it was for me putting this together, and I hope it turns out all right. Enjoy the games, and best of luck. Go Browns.

Until next time, "read it, roll it, hole it."