Friday, September 10, 2010

2010 NFL ATS Pick 'Em: Week One

By: Luke Florence

Ever since I was ten I had a favorite movie of all-time ... Cool Runnings. For the next 14 years of my life if anyone asked me to name my favorite movie, Cool Runnings would be my no-brainer selection. This lasted until I saw Inception. It changed everything.

I loved the acting. I loved the cinematography. I loved the action. But most of all, I loved the story. It was one of the only films I walked away from sensing that I had just watched not a great movie, but a great work of art.

If you haven't seen it, you are missing out.

The very definition of 'Inception' makes it an obvious choice for week one. It is an event that is a beginning. A first part of subsequent events. We are about to embark on a 17-week journey that will have us constantly on the edge of our seats. Every game matters. Every play. We've only seen one game already and the difference between winning and losing was a simple blocked extra point. This is the madness an Against The Spread league creates.

Enjoy it everyone, for better or for worse. (My response to members' comments are in italics)
MIAMI (-2.5) @ BUFFALO

"What is the most resilient parasite? Bacteria? A virus? An intestinal worm? An idea. Resilient... highly contagious. Once an idea has taken hold of the brain it's almost impossible to eradicate. An idea that is fully formed - fully understood - that sticks; right in there somewhere." - Cobb

There is this "idea" floating around the NFL right now, and it deals with just how bad the Buffalo Bills will be. They could be the worst team in the league. Even if they aren't, they won't cover this one. They should do Lee Evans a favor and trade him mid-way through the year.

My Pick: MIA (-2.5)

Barnes: "Dynamite – No, this game won’t be so amazing that you’ll throw your hands in the air. No, it’s the kind of game you’ll want dynamite to blow up your TV cause that’ll be more exciting to watch." 'I throw my hands up in the air sometimes.' Usually Buffalo's defense is on the field when the ref puts both his hands up. And yes, I'll be trying to incorporate a lyric from every song Barnes provides into the match-up at hand.

Boesch: "I can’t wait until LeBron James tweets about his Miami 'fam' winning week one. But his mom won’t be watching. She likes the West’s offerings much more than the East." If he starts rooting for Miami teams after all those years of wearing Yankees hats @ Indians playoff games, and playing catch with the Cowboys before Browns games I might go Ray Lewis all over his ass.

Schaffer: "Not sure if the Dolphins can live up to the hype they've gotten, but I feel like any team in the league should be able to cover this spread. What has to happen for Buffalo to realize Trent Edwards isn't the answer to anything." Unless the question is who was the first NFL quarterback to lose a game to Brady Quinn. Not sure that's really helping his case however.
CLEVELAND @ TAMPA BAY (-3.5)

"Dreams feel real while we're in them. It's only when we wake up that we realize something was actually strange." - Cobb

I keep having this sensation that the Browns didn't actually pay Jake Delhomme seven million dollars, and that I will wake up on Sunday from a really horrible dream. But alas, that will not happen and I will be stuck with this more-than strange realization that I have to hope Delhomme plays well.

Speaking of Delhomme, Anthony Tynan is well on his way to defending his anti-MVP crown. Not only did he send me an e-mail to the wrong address but he told me he was taking the Saints. Apparently he didn't get the pick in one hour before kick-off but wanted me to know who he would have taken? He then assumed that if he tied someone in the CBS standings that this pick would give him the tie-breaker.

Ladies and gentlemen, Anthony Tynan. Wow.

My Pick: CLE (+3.5)

Barnes: "Misery – Do I even need to explain this? Only perk of this game is seeing Mangini’s confused/frustrated/”I’m gonna get fired” face every other play." 'Why do you do what you do to me?' Why do you do this to me Browns? Why? Look, I go to you. I stick up for you. You don't help me now. I say "F**k you," Browns, I do it myself.

Boesch: "It is very unlikely, but the city of Cleveland would appreciate a season of contention more than ever this year if the Browns can pull it off. Meaningful games in December would mean everything to the city after this summer. I really think they start 2-0, and then who knows?" Last time the Browns started 2-0 was 1993. I was eight.

Schaffer: "Not being a Browns fan, I found the Delhomme addition to be one of the most hilarious signings ever...and I'm still taking Cleveland." I hate my life.
ATLANTA (-2.5) @ PITTSBURGH

"Nah, I can't let you touch it, that would defeat the purpose." - Arthur

There is no doubt that Big Ben told this at one point to that poor little girl this off-season. Of course he was referring only to her hands.

My Pick: PIT (+2.5)

Boesch: "Welcome to another year of the F’d Up Pick of the Week. I have been itching to get back into the groove after my heartbreaking loss in Round 1 of the F’d Up Tournament. If I was picking this game, I would go with Pittsburgh, but that’s now how it works. Let’s go (road team rolls first).

ROLL 1: Slow start for both sides. 4-3 ATL.
ROLL 2: Dennis Dixon and the Steelers take the lead with a 7-point roll. 10-9 PIT.
ROLL 3: Back-and-forth battle, with Atlanta tying it with a roll of 9. 18-18 TIE.
ROLL 4: Great roll for my favorite coach in the league and my least favorite team. Pittsburgh with a 10. 28-25 PIT.
ROLL 5: Our first double, with Atlanta going for two 5’s and an and-one of 2. And Pittsburgh responds with the opposite: two 2’s and a 5. All square going to halftime: 37-37 TIE.
ROLL 6: Big scoring here, with Pittsburgh winning the round 11-9. Now 48-46 PIT.
ROLL 7: Each team getting the typical 7. 55-53 PIT.
ROLL 8: WOW! Each team with an 11, with Atlanta getting it on an and-one. 66-64 PIT.
ROLL 9: Atlanta’s third and-one is a total of 9 (2’s with a 5) to go up by 7. Pittsburgh gets a 10. 76-73 PIT with one roll left.
ROLL 10: Matt Ryan not going away without a fight. An 11 with everything on the line. The Steelers need an 8 to tie or anything higher to win. And the roll…the first die rolled a 3, and the second one fell to the ground…a look, and IT’S A THREE! AND-ONE! The Steelers need a 3 or better to win! And the roll…ANOTHER THREE!!! Pittsburgh wins. WOW WHAT A START! The Steelers get to keep going with a second and-one and notch a 6. So Pittsburgh outscores the Falcons 15-11 in the final round to win 91-84 in a game that was much closer than that score." God how I have missed that.

Schaffer: "I'm so sick of people telling me I look like Roethlisberger that I might not pick the Steelers once this year...I'm so much more mobile than him." Both on and off the field Schaf?

Barnes: "Teach Me How To Dougie – How did Big Ben get his suspension reduced to 4 games? Rumor is he taught the Commish how to Dougie." 'Put your arms out front, lean side-to-side.' Pretty sure Big Ben told that poor little girl that as well.

Fiz: "Sure, Big Ben lost his endorsement opportunities with his latest allegations, but that just paved the way for Dennis Dixon to put out his new beverage, complete with the slogan: 'Your girl's gonna love my Dixon Cider.'" Apparently all the proceeds he makes are going towards Big Ben's next rape trial.
DETROIT @ CHICAGO (-6.5)

"If we are gonna perform Inception then we need imagination." - Eames

Imagination is what the Bears are hoping Mike Martz will bring to the table. He will need plenty of it if he thinks the Bears are going to reach the playoffs. Jay Cutler should be better, but he's not good enough to get them past the Vikings or the Packers. As for the Lions, all the imagination in the world will only give them six or seven wins at most.

My Pick: DET (+6.5)

Schaffer: "For spending an entire year not winning, the Lions actually have some potential this season. Add-in Jay Cutler's Delhomme-esque 26 picks last season and I actually feel fairly good about this pick." Great minds think alike.

Barnes: "OMG – My reaction when the Lions win a game and when Jay Cutler completes a pass to someone on his team." 'Baby I can break ya down. There's so many ways to love ya.' Calvin Johnson will break down that Chicago secondary, but if not then at least you can rely on Jay Cutler. The Lions have options this week.

Boesch: "I went to Detroit twice last December. I saw a sign that said 'Recession is a test, not a final exam.' I giggled. Detroit is in denial. That being said, the Lions will have a better winning percentage than the Pistons this season." Apparently Boesch has very little faith in Ben Gordon ... for good reason.
OAKLAND @ TENNESSEE (-6.5)

"Come back to reality, Dom." - Professor

So Oakland thinks they are an improved team? After this game is over they will have heeded to the Professor's advice.

My Pick: TEN (-6.5)

Boesch: "Well, he was great when he was healthy (never). He hit really hard (uh yea, that’s football). He led the defense (yea, not really). All those Bobcat fans who tried to pretend Mike Mitchell was great have given up after this." As that column so perfectly ended, 'Just another day in Raider Nation.'

Barnes: "California Gurls – No wonder the Raiders have been struggling lately. They’re always around girls with sun-kissed skin that melts your popsicle. And wouldn’t a melted popsicle ruin your day?" 'Sippin gin and juice, laying underneath the palm trees.' That is where you can find LenDale White if you happen to need him.

Schaffer: "I watched the 30 for 30 "Straight Outta LA" several months ago, and all I remember about it is seeing Al Davis in high definition. It was terrifying." That 30 for 30 series has been excellent. Don't know if I've watched a poor one yet.
CAROLINA @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-7.5)

"These aren't just dreams, these are memories and you said never to use memories!" - Ariadne

Unfortunately for Eli Manning, all he has left now is memories. Memories of when he was on top of the world after winning the Super Bowl. Those days are long behind him now. At least he still has the Eli Manning Face, which hopefully is not altered too much after that crushing pre-season blow.

My Pick: CAR (+7.5)

Boesch: "I spent the entire summer in the Carolinas, and I didn’t meet a single Panthers fan. I asked many people. Yay expansion!" And the week one quote of the week goes to ...

Schaffer: "Every year I pick Ahmad Bradshaw in a draft thinking he's Brandon Jacobs, only to realize I picked a second stringer. I did it once this year, then took Jacobs in my next two, only to find out Bradshaw is now the starter. This shouldn't really matter when picking against the spread, but I'm really annoyed with the Giants." I've been annoyed with the Giants for a while now. They seem to cover when they shouldn't, and vice versa. Or at the very least, they cover when I don't pick them and vice versa.

Barnes: "Take It Off – I have a feeling Eli never takes his helmet off ever again after the wicked hit he took in the preseason. His face looked like he just 'won' a game in the movie 'Saw.'" 'And they turn me on, when they take it off.' Obviously Keisha was not referring to Eli Manning who as Barnes mentions, might never take his helmet off again. Of course, he could be like Tobias Funke from Arrested Development and always have his helmet on.
INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) @ HOUSTON

"The moment's passed. Whatever I do I can't change this moment. I'm about to call out to them. They run away. If I'm ever going to see their faces I've gotta get back home. The real world." - Cobb

Peyton Manning would be smart if he realized that last year's Super Bowl moment is over. He can't change the fact he threw that ill-advised interception late in the game that sealed his fate. What's the best recipe for that? Playing the Texans in a regular season game. This is where and when Peyton shines the brightest.

My Pick: IND (-2.5)

Schaffer: "The Texans' late-game offense couldn't be more different than the Colts'. If there was a 4th quarter-only fantasy league I'd probably pick Jeff Saturday before Matt Schaub." This is why Jeff Schaffer will battle it out to the end for some hardware. Solid QOTW contender.

Barnes: "All I Do Is Win – Colts beating the Texans is as sure a thing these days as Dick Cheney suffering and surviving a heart attack." 'We come together holding hands and holla thug life.' Anyone else actually like the players on Thursday night sharing that moment of solidarity. If you can get past the fact they are making millions of dollars, then you should realize they are getting the short-end of the stick from the league in a lot of ways.

Boesch: (After picking Houston) "The Saints won a Super Bowl. All of Cleveland hates LeBron James. I may see Luke this calendar year. Stranger things have happened." Like Jake Delhomme being the Browns QB.
GREEN BAY (-3.5) @ PHILADELPHIA

"No, cause I think positive emotion trumps negative emotion every time. We all crave reconciliation - we're catharsis." - Cobb

Green Bay looked really good last year in the preseason and during the majority of the regular season. Their offense looked spectacular in their playoff game against the Cardinals, but their defense was atrocious. We will have to wait and see whether they choose the positive or the negative this time around.

My Pick: GB (-3.5)

Boesch: "I’m already planning my trip to Augusta to visit Jake Young in February for the Super Bowl. After the Packers win it all, he will touch me like never before." This is why I want to get an actual awards banquet put together. To celebrate and re-create moments like Jake Young touching Brian Boesch.

Barnes: "Not Afraid – Am I afraid of picking the Packers to win the NFC this year? Not at all. Am I afraid of Andy Reid when he’s hungry? Absolutely." 'I guess I had to go to that place to get to this one.' Maybe the Packers will look back at their playoff loss last year as an experience builder that will help them reach higher levels this season?

Schaffer: "Kevin Kolb was drafted behind JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn. It's easy to see why the Eagles have so much confidence in him." 2007 was not a good year for drafting quarterbacks. Following Kolb there was John Beck, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards, Isaiah Stanback, Jeff Rowe, Troy Smith, Jordan Palmer and Tyler Thigpen. Based on those staggering numbers, Kolb is going to be awful.
CINCINNATI @ NEW ENGLAND (-4.5)

"You're infecting my mind!" - Mal

The thought of T.O and Ocho-Cinco as teammates is seriously infecting my mind. But, it's infecting my mind with the possibilities of the Bengals being a really good team.

My Pick: CIN (+4.5)

Barnes: "I Like It – T.O. and Ochocinco on the same team. Rivals some of the best pairings ever like peanut butter and jelly, Wilbon and Kornheiser and Tiger and Elin." Quote Of The Week contender for Barnes.

Fiz: "Randy Moss, T.O., Ocho, Cedric Benson and Pacman Jones will all be on the same field in this game. Who can act a fool the best in this match-up?" Too bad Gus Johnson isn't calling this game. The phrase, "getting away from the cops speed" seems to mean more with the players involved in this one.

Schaffer: "Probably the toughest game to pick. Almost took the Pats based solely on having both Julian Edelman and Taylor Price in their receiving corps. I love MAC sports way more than anyone should." Really was hoping Taylor Price was going to get drafted by the Browns, but also knew the Patriots weren't going to let him drop past them as well. Good teams know good players. It's really that simple.

Boesch: "With all of the television shows that the Bengals have starred in (TO, Chad on VH1; Tank Johnson on COPS; Andre Smith a producer at Food Network), how will they be able to focus this season? They are in for a rude awakening this year." You would think they will set the league record for most fines in a season.
DENVER @ JACKSONVILLE (-2.5)

"You remember when you asked me to marry you? You said you dreamt that we'd grow old together." - Mal

You remember when Brady Quinn was going to be a starter in the NFL? I dreamt it, and I'm sure Brady did as well. Now, I'm not saying it won't happen, but to this point it's not looking good. I'll leave you with the Bible verse Quinn signed for me: "Consider it pure joy, my brothers, whenever you face trials of many kinds, because you know that the testing of your faith develops perseverance. Perseverance must finish its work so that you may be mature and complete, not lacking anything."

The KOA still - and always will - believes in Brady Quinn.

My Pick: DEN (+2.5)

Boesch: "Luke needs to send an autographed bible verse to Brady Quinn. He really needs it this season." QOTW contender for Mr. Boesch. Well done.

Barnes: "Teenage Dream – I bet Brady Quinn had teenage dreams of being a star QB in the NFL. Now, his claim to fame: meeting Matt Barnes A.K.A. The Promise." 'So take a chance, and don't ever look back.' Safe to say Josh McDaniels took a big chance taking Tim Tebow when he did, but as for right now, the only one looking back is Brady Quinn, wondering how close Tebow is to the #2 spot.

Fiz: "Pretty sad when the visiting team's third-string quarterback is the only reason this game will be sold out. But I'm sure Jacksonville fans are dying to see their team's first-round pick in action...who is it again?" How dare you forget about Tyson Alualu. And yes I had to look that up.

Schaffer: "I was at a loss when Denver started 6-0 last season, and somehow felt satisfied when they only finished 8-8. If they start strong again, expect similar frustration from me...and a similar collapse from Kyle Orton." Denver's first game last year couldn't have been more boring, but the last 30 seconds could not have been more exciting. "Stokley with the caaaaatch!"
SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) @ SEATTLE

"You're waiting for a train. A train that will take you far away. You know where you hope this train will take you, but you can't be sure. Yet it doesn't matter. Now, tell me why?" - Cobb

I'll answer that question for you Mr. Cobb. Because you would rather be on that train going for nowhere than to be stuck watching this game.

This is my "I Have Sunday Ticket But Won't Watch This Game" Pick of the Week.

My Pick: SF (-2.5)

Boesch: "Alex Smith, Matt Hasselback, Derek Anderson, Sam Bradford. Sounds more like a law firm than a division’s worth of quarterbacks, but I don’t trust them with anything." I trust Alex Smith to have small hands. I trust Hasselback to have a hot sister-in-law. I trust Anderson to make goofy faces. I trust Bradford to get hurt as soon as he gets sacked.

Schaffer: "The Niners should win this division semi-easily, kind of like they used to in the early-mid 90s. But instead of eventually making the NFC Championship, Alex Smith will be their quarterback." That is Schaffer's second QOTW nominee boys and girls.

Barnes: "Cooler Than Me – Pete Carroll doesn’t judge players and coaches by talent. Just simply on the cool factor. If you’re cooler than him, you’re gone (ex. Alex Gibbs, T.J. Housh-ya-momma)." 'You need everyone's eyes just to feel seen.' Sounds like Pete Carroll, who by the way, is not taking nearly enough heat for leaving that USC program amidst probation and lost scholarships.
ARIZONA (-3.5) @ ST. LOUIS

"No, They come here to be woken up. Dream has become their reality! Who are you to say, otherwise?" - Thin Man

Derek Anderson's dream has become a reality. He's starting again in the NFL. I'm speechless except for the fact that I won't back Derek Anderson on the road ... ever.

My Pick: STL (+3.5)

Boesch: "Shameless plug for my friend Tony Castricone’s trip around the country. Seriously, take four minutes out of your life to watch it. And it pertains to the NFC West. From the bust of Alex Smith, To the picks thrown by D.A., St. Louis has no fanfare. And Seattle has nothing but rain, The NFC West sucks wherever I go…"


Barnes: "Ridin’ Solo – After winning one game all of last year, the Rams get a winnable game right out of the gate. And how the f**k is Derek Anderson a starter in the NFL?" 'I'm loving cloud nine, my heads in the sky.' Your head has to be high as a kite in the sky if you think Derek Anderson is going to work out for any professional football team in the history of the NFL.

Fiz: "The first Warner Bowl features the captivating quarterback match-up between Derek Anderson and Sam Bradford. Gag." Is it possible Sam Bradford is the best starting QB in that division? Already?

Schaffer: "When losing Donnie Avery cripples your receiving corps, you're depth chart is probably a little too thin. Good luck, Sam." The Rams might be the only team in the league with worse wide-outs than the Browns.
DALLAS (-3.5) @ WASHINGTON

"Never recreate places from your memory. Always imagine new places!" - Cobb

This directly applies to Donovan McNabb and Mike Shanahan. They are in new places with new faces. They will be successful if they accept that fact and not try to recreate the places they just left. Washington only won four games last year, they are in a work in progress, at least two years out of playoff contention.

My Pick: WAS (+3.5)

Boesch: "Did you work six days this summer? Congratulations, you did more than Albert Haynesworth." But I bet you didn't get paid more.

Barnes: "Billionaire – The match-up of teams with owners who have and spend lots of money. If I had a team, I’d be like the Pirates. Put a shitty team on the field and pocket the profits. Ay, it’s a recession." 'Oh every time I close my eyes ... ' Do you think Tony Romo sees that botched field-goal from a couple years back, or Jessica Simpson before she got fat?

Fiz: "McNabb's in D.C., Haynesworth steals from Dan Snyder, Romo is homo." God I love this league.

Schaffer: "I'm not sure how much McNabb will be able to help the Redskins...it seems like Santana Moss's route tree contains a streak, and maybe a fade." Maybe.
BALTIMORE @ NEW YORK JETS (-2.5)

"You remind me of someone ... a man I met in a half-remembered dream. He was possessed of some radical notions." - Saito

Can't think of anyone else but Rex Ryan, especially after this quote last year, "We're obviously out of the playoffs, and that's unfortunate." Except for the fact that they weren't out of the playoffs, and eventually got in through the right combination of wins and losses.

My Pick: NYJ (-2.5)

Barnes: "Club Can’t Handle Me – This either applies to Plaxico Burress or Ray Lewis, who killed a guy. You can probably throw Rex Ryan in that group too, except it’s more 'Club Can’t Fit Me.'" 'Gotta be the feeling that Scarface felt.' Must be referring to Ray Lewis and all those guys both he and Scarface killed.

Schaffer: "The season hasn't started and I'm already more sick of Sanchez than last year. A defense hasn't propped up an average quarterback like this since Baltimore Trent Dilfer." You know, if Dilfer and Sanchez both got in a car wreck and couldn't walk again, I wouldn't be sad at all. Seriously, I would probably even smile a bit. Yep, I'm definitely going to hell.

Fiz: "With T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the fold, the Ravens now have about as many offensive targets as Antonio Cromartie has kids. Cromartie will be sure to remember their names after this game, though." Unless Ray Lewis stabs one of them.

Boesch: "Big predictions of the year: Jets, Bengals and Vikings don’t make the playoffs. Saints don’t win the division. Ravens over Packers in the Super Bowl." Everyone, and I mean everyone has Green Bay in the Super Bowl. I'll take the Saints again please.
SAN DIEGO (-5.5) @ KANSAS CITY

"I'll come back and we'll be young men together again." - Saito

Do you think this is what Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel said to each other when they decided to come back and attempt to recreate that New England Patriots winning formula?

My Pick: SD (-5.5)

Barnes: "Magic – Props to the Chiefs for hoping they can bring some old Patriots magic to KC with Weis and Crennel on the sidelines. Just hope the cafeteria crew doubled their food orders from last season." 'So come one, come all, and see the show tonight, prepare to be astounded.' That post-game meal will be one helluva show.

Schaffer: "I'm kind of worried about what will happen when Norv Turner, Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel meet at midfield. Kansas City might not have football anymore." Start getting the feeling that the Weis-Crennel combo is going to get some play this year from our league.

Fiz: "Weis and Crennel are reunited...now they just need Brady, Deion Branch, Kevin Faulk, Tedy Bruschi..." I think Kevin Faulk is still playing ... somewhere.

Boesch: "Arby’s in Missouri are smiling. Weis and Crennel are back!" You know who's not smiling, Donatos.

That wraps up the first week. Enjoy the football, and go see Inception, even if you already have.

Until next time, "read it, roll it, hole it."

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