It goes without saying that habits are hard to break. Just ask the Cleveland Browns, they've been trying to break the habit of perpetually losing games for the past two decades. But it was my good friend John Irving who said, "Good habits are worth being fanatical about."
People who know me, or even those who think they do, would not have a difficult time talking to others about my interests. Without hesitation, "sports" would be one of the first topics they would mention. They would be correct. At heart, I'm a sports-junkie. But it doesn't define who I am or what I'm about either. That would be misleading and forever wrong.
It's one of the many things I'm passionate about. As Irving said, it's a good habit that I'm fanatical towards. As for me, I would add writing, reading, and LOST as other things my passion consumes.
John Irving is a well known American author and Academy-Award winning screen-writer. His best-known work was The Cider House Rules, which was nominated for Best Picture and gave Michael Caine an Oscar for Best-Supporting Actor.
Now I've never watched the film, but it's title parallels my theme for Wild Card Weekend.Years ago, Bill Simmons created a Playoff Manifesto, in which he outlines a specific formula for choosing NFL winners and losers once the playoffs begin. As I've smoked him the past three years in Against The Spread Picks, I'm not going to follow his at all. Instead, I'm going to come up with a few of my own, and then as the years go by, simply add to it. The ultimate goal is to go undefeated (11-0) in the playoffs. With John Irving on my side, why not this year?
Rule #1: If all else fails. Go with your gut.
Gambling on sports is not easy. All the research you find on Pro-Football Reference, or all the articles you read on-line, or all the opinions from "experts" you watch on TV can sometimes leave you more confused and more distraught then before you went to them for guidance. When push comes to shove, if you simply do not know, go with your gut.
Rule #2: Home-field advantage still means something.
Sure it doesn't mean as much as it did say ten years ago, but it still matters a little, especially in the post-season. Show me a team that would rather go on the road than play a game at home, and I'll show you a team coached by Helen Keller.
Rule #3: Got to have a Quarterback.Teams with the better QBs win more times than they lose in the regular season. In the playoffs, they are even more important. Teams with the best QBs go the farthest. The only exception to this rule is when a team has an extraordinarily good defense.
Rule #4: At Least one Wild Card Weekend Team WILL win in the Divisional Round. Guaranteed.
2004 was the last year this didn't hold true. The point is that when you are picking the Wild Card games, keep in mind that at least one of your winners should be able to win again the following weekend.
Rule #5: Karma Is A Bitch ... And So Is History.
Karma was the reason the New England Patriots didn't win the 2007 Super Bowl. Karma is the reason the Dallas Cowboys haven't won a playoff game in more than a decade. History shows you the Cincinnati Bengals haven't advanced in the postseason since the FIRST George Bush was the President. You want karma and history on your side. If not, then you are toast.
Dwight Schrute told me, "K.I.S.S. Keep It Simple, Stupid." So, I will. Like I said in the introduction, as the year's go on, I will add to these five NFL Playoff Cider House Rules. But for the time being, let's start the application process.
NEW YORK JETS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2.5)
Karma is not on the New York Jets side thanks to their head coach proclaiming they are the prohibitive favorite. They have the lesser QB and they are on the road. Yet, my gut tells me that they are the pick here for one BIG reason. The match-up.
We hear it all the time in basketball (and rightfully so) that match-ups dictate all. Well, every once in a while it applies to football. If the Jets and Bengals were going to play 10 times, I think the Jets would win 8. They run the ball better than Cincinnati thanks to a more powerful offensive line. Their defense is more explosive than the Bengals thanks to more play-makers, and they just whipped Cincy 37-0. It's hard to come back from a massive beat-down such as that.
My Pick to Cover: NYJ (+2.5)
My Pick to Win: NYJ 24-16.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DALLAS COWBOYS (-4.5)
The last two times the Cleveland Browns made the playoffs ('94, '02) they lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers. No big surprise there I know, but you may be a little perplexed to find that each time Pittsburgh knocked the Browns out of the playoffs it was the third time they had defeated them in that given year. Last season, the Pittsburgh Steelers got to the Super Bowl by beating the Baltimore Ravens ... for the THIRD time.
So, it seems as if history is both with Dallas here as they try to defeat Philly a third time in '09, and against them (haven't won a playoff game since 1996).
The better QB might be a toss-up. Sure most everyone would rather have Donovan McNabb than Tony Romo, but I don't want a QB puking in the huddle during a big game (as McNabb did in the Super Bowl).
My gut is telling me Dallas, mainly because the Cowboys are a team that is capable of knocking out Minnesota next week more-so than Philly upsetting New Orleans.
My Pick To Cover: DAL (-4.5)
My Pick To Win: DAL 31-24.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3.5)
This one is easy despite the absence of Wes Welker.
The Patriots have Tom Brady. The Patriots are playing at home. The Patriots might even have a bit of the "Nobody Believes In Us," going for them.
This one could get ugly.
My Pick To Cover: NE (-3.5)
My Pick To Win: NE 38-13.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2.5)
Last season I rooted for Arizona throughout the playoffs. It was fun watching Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald make a run for the Super Bowl. This season, I will probably be rooting for the Patriots (I heart Tom Brady), but my NFC team will be whoever wins this one.
Green Bay Cornerback, Charles Woodson, is one of my 40 favorite sport figures, and he's having a career year this season. Meanwhile the Cards still have Fitzgerald and Warner, so my heart is torn a bit. Therefore, I turn to my five Cider House Rules.
Cardinals have home-field advantage. Cardinals have the better QB (Rodgers has never played in the postseason). Signs point to Arizona, but I'm basing this pick off of the Philly-Dallas game.
If Dallas wins on Saturday night, then the winner of the GB-ARI game faces New Orleans.
If Philly wins on Saturday night, then the winner of the GB-ARI game faces Minnesota.
Green Bay wants Minnesota. In fact, Green Bay wants Minnesota a little too much. If Philly wins the game, the Packers are going to press too hard. But, if Dallas wins, then Green Bay has a great thing happen to them - not having to think about Brett Favre. They go out more relaxed, and knock off Arizona, just like they did last week.
Because I have Dallas winning, then that means I have Green Bay winning as well. These two teams are more than capable of winning multiple games in the post-season, and might even face each other in the NFC Championship. But, that will have to wait until next week.
My Pick To Cover: GB (+2.5)
My Pick To Win: GB 31-30.
What about you? How do you see the Wild Card weekend turning out? Which team do you think has the best chance of winning multiple games in the playoffs? Which game are you most excited about? Let me know in the comments section, and maybe a discussion will break out.
At the very least, remember one point from this column. Good habits are worth keeping, and worth being passionate about.
Until next time, "read it, roll it, hole it."
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