Saturday, November 07, 2009

2009 NFL ATS Pick 'Em: Week Nine

By: Luke Florence

Before we move into week nine, let’s clean up some dust left over from week eight.

How come no one mentioned their disappointment when there was a noticeable absence of a week eight song? That hurt a bit.

Well, HERE it is. Ronald Jenkees (same guy who recorded the Bill Simmons Podcast) remixed a classic Halloween song. Do work.

Usually week nine is reserved for my mid-way awards, but thanks to some much needed math, we found out that the mid-way point of the NFL season (at least in relation to number of games this league will be picking) is not until week ten. So that column will have to wait.

With the past and the future parts of week nine cleared up, we can move to the present. For the final time this year, we only have 13 games to pick. Week ten jumps back up to 15 games, and after that, 16 games each week. For the final time (until week 17), the first game of the week will be on Sunday afternoon. Thursday night games start next week and will continue until the first weekend in January.

It appears as if this league is on the brink of going through some changes. More games to pick. Earlier deadline due to Thursday night games. Hmmm. I wonder what could be the week nine song?



David Bowie’s “Changes.”

Just gonna have to be a different man. Time may change me. But I can’t trace time.

Giddy up, week nine is here.

BALTIMORE (-2.5) @ CINCINNATI

This time around I expect the road team to win again … hopefully by the same margin.

My Pick: BAL (-2.5)

Let the Ray Lewis murder comments begin.

Barnes: “"Brick, you killed a guy" - Yeah, Ray Lewis, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safe-house or a relative close by. Lay low for a while, because you're probably wanted for murder.” Look out Gus Johnson, here comes Matt Barnes with vengeance. As Ludacris said, “I’m coming for that number one spot.”

Kevin: “Expect there to be a lot of points in this game, so I'm going with the offense that should be able to score the most points. Cause the team scoring the most points will win. Thank you John Madden.” And that’s what that’s all about.

Lay: “Headline in the Cincinnati Enquirer regarding tomorrow's Bengals game: "Ravens' Lewis vows he won't dial back." So I'm not sure what that means, if maybe he's been dialed back in the past? All I'm saying is that I don't think heavy artillery is out of the question this week.” So the first thing I thought of when reading that headline involving the word ‘dial’ was Ironhead Heyward bathing in the shower. That’s effective advertising.

Reamer: “Ochocinco sent the Ravens deodorant ... now Ray Lewis has something to cover the scent of the dead bodies he's about to leave in his wake.” That will be a nice change of pace for Ray Ray. Usually he just has to kill all the witnesses.

Smitty: “Ray Lewis murders everyone in Cincinnati due to his rage of giving up 100 to Cedric Benson. Bengals felons fight back with shanks fashioned out of toothbrushes. Murderfest 2009.” Yes, these are my friends.

MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND (-10.5)

Two schools of thought. One, the Miami Dolphins always play good teams close. Or two, the Patriots coming off a bye week should dominate just about everyone they play. For yours truly, it comes down to which scenario is the easiest to imagine.

My Pick: NE (-10.5)

Reamer: “So Hunt wants in too. He does have a hot sister. Nick Lay is a gay.” Couldn’t have asked for a better comeback Reamer. Beautiful.

Brian: “Anyone else mad they couldn't go to a Bill Simmons book signing? He's my favorite nerdy sports geek. Can't wait until Luke Florence becomes the next internet sensation, starting the best ATS leagues around.” Thought about making the two-hour trek to Chicago, but alas, I had to work. Looking forward to reading his 700 page encyclopedia, but I might read Andre Agassi’s book first.

Barnes: “A true "Afternoon Delight" as the Dolphins try to slow down Tom Brady. Just add scotch and you've got one hell of a party.” Tom Brady owns many leather-bound books.

Kevin: “Taking out the '07 46-point win over the Bills, the Pats have won their last five games off the bye by an average of 12.4 points per win. Gimme the hoodie.” To just about everyone in this league, they will read Kevin’s comments and think, ‘Wow, Hunt is looking up relevant information before making his picks. That’s a nice change of pace.’ But they should be thinking, ‘what in the blue hell happened to Kevin?’

Hug: “Jon Gruden gets excited just thinking about the Wildcat. It’s just like the holidays, except you don’t have to watch a Tim Allen Christmas movie to Curb Your Enthusiasm.” Favorite Curb Your Enthusiasm episode from this season was last week’s Swan episode. The rant about Derek Jeter was terrific.

KANSAS CITY @ JACKSONVILLE (-6.5)

Kansas City seems like one of those sneaky teams that may end up winning five games this year, cover games on the road, and have one or two big upsets.

My Pick: KC (+6.5)

Kevin: “I'll be sensitive. I bet Larry Johnson's gay. All you guys are fags.” We are all waiting for the week when Hunt uses haiku’s for every game. It could happen, believe.

Lay: “I'm half-expecting to see highlights of this game filled with dozens upon dozens of tumbleweeds blowing through J'Ville.” Wait … did Lay just say he expected to see ‘highlights’ from this game? Does he realize what two teams are playing? There will be no highlights. None.

Barnes: “"I'm in a glass case of emotion" trying to pick this one. If both teams suck, which team you go for?” The one getting the points.

GREEN BAY (-9.5) @ TAMPA BAY

Battle of The Bays. Green should beat Tampa by at least ten points … right?

My Pick: GB (-9.5)

Kevin: “Another Bucs QB will get a first start. And unfortunately for TB, it's not Jeff Garcia. Or Trent Dilfer. Or Steve Young. Or Brad Johnson. Or Steve Spurrier. Or Jim Zorn. No, I made none of those up.” Vinny Testaverde is fuming you left him off this list. He is turning over in his grave as you read this.

Brian: “Kellen Winslow hasn't won in 356 days. The best QB he's ever had was probably Ken Dorsey while at Miami. He don't give a hell.” Totally forgot about Mr. Winslow playing for the winless Bucs. Well, at least he has Sam Bradford to look forward to in ten months. That will be nice. I think.

Hug: ““Bay” “Tampa” That’s the way their chant came across when I used to play Madden 2001 on the computer against them. It took me a long time to realize that video games were dyslexic. There should be a support group for that. They should see Vince Young’s psychiatrist or his mother (because he played well guys, come-on).” Video games weren’t dyslexic. That’s how John Madden thought the chant actually went.

Barnes: “"Diversity is an old wooden ship". You can find one of those in Tampa Bay in the end-zone.” Diversity or the ship? Doubt it is diversity, seeing as Green will be the only color in Tampa’s end zone this week.

WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA (-10.5)

Falcons are due for a break-out. This is code for, “Never taking the Redskins on the road … ever.”

My Pick: ATL (-10.5)

Brian: “My friend's dad told me about a final essay he had in college. Apparently there was a long story about some really brave person, and the question was something along the lines of "Explain how you can be brave in a situation in your life." So he wrote in HUGE letters, "This is brave," and turned in the exam. Done in 10 seconds. Well, picking the Redskins is like that. You are really nervous, but it shows you have marbles. By the way, he got an A. I hope I get a W.” What your friend’s dad did on his essay is not nearly as brave as what you are doing this weekend by backing the Skins. Just so you know. I envy you.

Schaffer: “Kind of mad at the Falcons for not only squandering their chances to beat the Saints, but also covering with a pointless field goal. Maybe Jason Elam won't be a douche this week.” At least your teams can be put in position to kick a pointless field goal. The Browns are simply pointless, in every possible meaning of the word.

Barnes: “The Falcons will have just four words for the Redskins after they beat them down to the ground - ‘Thanks for stopping by.’” Who gets canned first? Jim Zorn or Eric Mangini?

Hug: “Another Jon Gruden comment. Matty “Ice” Ryan might be Top Five on Gruden’s favorite things to say. He was so stimulated with that dynamic mouthpiece Monday night, you almost wondered if the guys in the booth were about to go skiing with him.” Or if they were up there downing a case of Natty Ice. One or the other.

Jeff: “I thought the worse team in the NFL was in Washington--wrong-thank you Mangini.” He just keeps on giving doesn’t he?

ARIZONA @ CHICAGO (-3.5)

No idea. Could go either way. Time for the Frankie Boner Pick Of The Week.

My Pick: CHI (-3.5)

Brian: “It's that time again. Time for the F'd Up Pick of the Week. This week, we get a fairly even game, but I like the Cardinals in it. Let's see if that pick is F'd Up enough. Road team rolls first.

Roll #1: By the way, when I'm on the podcast with Luke, I've decided to do the F'd Up pick live during the show. Luke may soil himself. Anyways, a slow first round, as Chicago snails out to a 6-5 advantage.
Roll #2: After a 7 by Zona, we have a first for the F'd Up Pick of the Week....double 6's! The and-one...a 6!!!!!!!!!! Another? How about a 4. A 22 point roll for Chicago. The Bears are booming with confidence after playing the Browns last week. 28-12 CHI.
Roll #3: Kurt Warner is going down without a fight early on here. 7-5 win in the round for Lovie's crew. 35-17 CHI through 3.
Roll #4: Zona shows a bit of life with a solid 8, but Jay Cutler is a bully, so he went out and rolled a 10. 45-25 CHI. Biggest lead ever before the half for a team.
Roll #5: My goodness...an 11 for the Bears after another 8 for Arizona. It's 56-33 Bears. The Bears are on pace for 112 points! Let's root for history, folks.
Roll #6: Well, that pace is slowed a bit, as both teams roll a 5. 61-38 Bears. Again, still on pace for triple-digits. COME ON CHICAGO!
Roll #7: I think the Bears put on the breaks a bit. Meanwhile, Arizona won its first roll of the contest, 9-7. Bears still up big, 68-47.
Roll #8: All that offensive momentum is gone for the Bears. Arizona won another roll, but only by a score of 6-5. 73-53 Bears. Too bad Larry didn't start going absurd...this could've been a game.
Roll #9: HOLD ON! After a 4 by the Cardinals, ANOTHER DOUBLE-6 FOR THE BEARS. With the John Adams drumming going on...the roll........a 4! 16 points. 89-57 Chicago. An all-time high for points in the F'd Up pick of the week...there's still a shot at a 100!
Roll #10: Well in the most meaningless roll ever, Arizona rolled double 3's, then a 3 on the next two and-one rolls, and then a 6. And they are STILL down 14 points and the Bears haven't even rolled. Thanks for being late, Cardinals. OK, here goes. Come on Bears...pull this off. The roll......there was a 6, but then just a 1. 7 to finish it off. 96-73 Bears with the win. The pick is....Chicago -3.5.” Let the record show that I did indeed soil myself at the mere thought of doing the F’d Up Pick Of The Week LIVE on the pod cast. And let the record show that I am okay with that.

Barnes: “Way to go Browns. "You woke up the Bears". Apparently, they could also smell the menstruation coming from Eric Mangini.” This might be the toughest week yet to pick a QOTW winner. This one is certainly in the running. Well done.

HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5)

Karma is working in the Texans favor. Bob Sanders out, Andre Johnson in. I believe in karma. You should to.

My Pick: HOU (+9.5)

Barnes: “The Texans are 5-3 and would be in the playoffs if the season ended now. But no matter how much Matt Schaub says ‘Come see how good I look,’ all the praise will be thrown on Peyton Manning and his egg-shaped head.” Bought the QOA a Peyton Manning jersey, but she needed it to be a kids size in order to fit. The price is significantly lower with the kids jersey, which is one of the few times I can get jealous of Kevin Hunt’s shortness. It's right up there with a limbo contest, or the classic game, "You Short, You Win." Hunt's the Michael Jordan of that one.

Schaffer: “It seems like I've taken the Texans a lot this year...maybe I subconsciously have some feelings for Andre Johnson that need to be dealt with.” Don’t deal with it. Just let it in. Soak it in. Accept it. Life will be much better. And if you do this, I guarantee that moment of acceptance will make your 2009 top ten sporting moment list.

CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS (-14.5)

Two years ago I wasn’t sold on the Green Bay Packers despite their furious start. Now, I’m not sold on the Saints. I feel an upset brewing.

My Pick: CAR (+14.5)

Brian: “I tried to do karate when I was younger. Well, after a few weeks of really easy stuff, I went into a class with a few black belters and they showed me what I would eventually have to learn. Guess what? I quit. Well, Jake Delhomme is me, and Drew Brees is one of those black belters. I hope he reads this.” Brian Boesch looking for his 2nd QOTW winner. In an average week, this one would take the prize, but in a jam-packed week like this, who knows.

Kevin: “King of the Pick 6 Jake Of the Man vs. defense that contains guy who is trying to set a record for INT returned for TD. Saints offense might not have to score.” But I bet they do anyways.

Hug: “New Orleans is a good choice almost no matter what the line is, but I am giving them a big Wag of my Finger to them for having a guy get hurt because he wasn’t aware of his surroundings (costing them a timeout, stopping the clock late), then fumbling away the football, allowing Atlanta to put a crushing blow to my abysmal picking week. No I am not angry about going 4-9, but this is going to cost you New Orleans. I am picking Carolina and Jake Delhomme. I hope that one stings. I hope you feel it in your plums. Go Panthers.” Love the Wag Of My Finger idea Hug. (That’s what she said.) Keep it going every week.

Reamer: “Drew Brees has more weapons than Delonte West.” So does West come back and actually help the Cavs, or is he more of a distraction now that he is with the team every day. I don’t know. And I don’t care. Go Bulls.

Schaffer: “In a game with five interceptions, Jake Delhomme didn't throw one. If he out-plays Drew Brees this week I have no doubt that my head will explode.” Schaffer tossing his hat in the ring for a 2nd QOTW crown.

Barnes: “There's nothing sexy about the Panthers. They're too damn inconsistent this year to be a contender. Their motto this year: ‘60% of the time, it works every time.’” I’d put 5:1 odds on Delhomme not only owning Sex Panther but wearing it on a regular basis. Like right now.

DETROIT @ SEATTLE (-10.5)

In the Not Gonna Watch And I Have Sunday Ticket Pick Of The Week, I’ll take the home team.

My Pick: SEA (-10.5)

Kevin: “Ballbuster Pick of the Week: A Browns-Irish weekend. Taking the #7 I like better between the teams (combined wins between ND and Cleveland) in the 9th game listed (combined losses between the teams). Well, neither team has a #7, so I'm taking the team with the most Irish players on the roster. Seahawks 3, Lions 0.” John Carlson, Julius Jones (who I met on the ND field), and ???

Barnes: “"Tonight, let's be co-people". Actually, even if these two teams combined, they'd still be awful.” People watching this game could get confused. They thought they were tuning in for a football contest, but instead will be watching the equivalent of grown men ‘doing it’ on a rainbow.

Hug: “Last week the team I had the most faith in winning was the St. Louis Rams [against] the Detroit Lions. Yes that is a true story. Bring on the neon!” Yes, that is also a sad story.

Reamer: “Both these teams are like Cole Hamels...they just want this season to be over already. I'd rather fight for a fumble at the bottom of a pile with Brandon Spikes than watch this game.” Anyone else think Urban Meyer came out of the Spikes situation looking like an idiot?

TENNESSEE @ SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5)

Jeff Fisher has only six winning seasons in his 16-year coaching tenure with the Titans. How does someone keep his job nearly two decades with that track record? Easy. Have a ton of 8-8 and 7-9 seasons. Fisher has six of those as well. With that in mind, I fully expect the Titans to gravitate towards seven wins before the season is done.

My Pick: TEN (+4.5)

Kevin: “Niners are 0-5-1 ATS their last 6 vs. the Titans. Plus, I just spent about an hour looking up and recording Chris Johnson/Gus Johnson highlights from this season. See.... ya later!!” He’s got … running away from the cops speed!!

Brian: “We're one week away from people saying "Wow, Vince Young may actually be a quarterback in this league." Tennessee fans are cringing. Jeff Fisher is cringing. I'm excited.” ESPN and especially ESPN2 are locked and loaded. Just give them the word.

Jeff: “Vince Young declares himself the new head coach instead of QB.” Lendale White would be on board, that’s for certain.

Schaffer: “Michael Crabtree's impact could set a precedent for long-term holdouts instantly becoming good fantasy players. I'm already making Dez Bryant one of my top-three picks next year.” There is no ‘could’ about it … he is. It’s bad when on Tuesday I looked at all my leagues waiver wire, hoping to see Crabtree. What’s probably worse is that I half-expected him to be around. No wonder I’m doing awful in fantasy this year.

Barnes: “Heads up. If Mike Singletary invites you to ‘The Pants Party,’ don't go. It ain't sex, but it ain't a party either if you know what I mean.” Is this where Michael Irvin and Patrick Ewing go on a regular basis?

SAN DIEGO @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-4.5)

Giants have let me down three straight weeks. At this point I may be too far into the forest to see the trees, but I’m not running out yet. In Eli I Trust.

My Pick: NYG (-4.5)

Brian: “I hate New York. After the "Where's LeBron going to play in 2010?" 3-hour broadcast with the Cavs-Knicks as a solid side show, I hate the entire city. What a joke. And the worst part? LeBron soaked it in. I love his game, but he is a douche. And I'm as big of a Cleveland fan as there is. He's loving it.” Thank you Brian Boesch for using some perspective on LeBron James. That’s usually hard to get out of Cleveland fans.

Jeff: “Eli puts on a Chargers jersey, but only Jeff Fisher thinks it is funny.” Look out folks, Jeff Normand making a case for QOTW.

Barnes: “Chargers win if they get a run game and if they "stay classy". Meanwhile, the "Unique New York" Giants just need to protect their quarterback to stop the losing streak. Eli is tired of hearing "Whammy!" every time he gets sacked.” Annnnd, we now have a catch-phrase to say instead of “ELI MANNING FACE!”

Hug: “The Giants will rise this week like Gulliver in his Travel’s to Lilliput and Blefuscu (it’s a book reference Barnes), as they take out the pillagers from California in this battle.” Somewhere Matt Barnes is staring awkwardly at this comment. Taking a moment or two to himself, and now, finally just moving on.

DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA (-3.5)

Haven’t gotten the best read on the Eagles, but with the current season of It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia being my personal favorite, I’ll jump off the Cowboys bandwagon for just one week. This is legal in the eyes of the law.

My Pick: PHI (-3.5)

Let the Tony Romo comments commence.

Kevin: “I'm with Schaffer here. Miles Austin? Not from Jersey. Romo is homo.” That’s Hunt’s 2nd haiku of the week. No reason to believe he couldn’t do it for every game.

Hug: “Tony Romo is not good on grass, in outdoor stadiums, on the road or with women. If last year’s debacle repeats itself, this game will be classic. I don’t think I even need to say it.” The penultimate Romo experience would then be the following: Picnic lunch, in a dome, blanket spread out on artificial turf, in Dallas, with a dude.

Brian: “Romo's homoness seems to return when people are thinking it might be gone. He's come out of the closet more than Romeo Crennel has wrecked a buffet.” Which means Romo comes out of the closet at least eight times a week. At least.

Smitty: “Philly and their riot punch punk Tony Homo into buying some awful merchandise. He ends up with three turnovers.” Does your cat make too much noise??

Jeff: “The Eagles don't put any cooling fans on the field because Ryan Howard is brought in as guest "fan" on the sidelines.” So I lost my bet to Matt Barnes. The Yankees won the World Series before our most recent Pope died. The next question is, how do we top that bet?

Barnes: “Yes, we all hate the Cowboys and Romo is homo but as far the Dallas, ‘don't act like you're not impressed.’ They're probably overachieving right now but that's better than what the Browns are doing.” Getting your privates stuck in a meat-grinder would be better than what the Browns are doing.

Schaffer: “One of my fantasy teams has suddenly become a hub for Eagles, while the other is quarterbacked by Tony Romo. I'm not sure which, if either, will succeed this week.” Sounds like Schaffer will be hoping for a 45-37 type of game.

PITTSBURGH (-2.5) @ DENVER

Picked Denver just once this year, and that was when they played the Raiders. So needless to say, I’m backing the Steelers. You got to dance with the girl you brought in the first place. On the flip side, I am 0-7 in Steelers games this season. You be the judge.

My Pick: PIT (-2.5)

Brian: “Should be a good one here. Hopefully Tirico, Jaws and Gruden can focus on this one with such a good one coming next week. Next week, the MNF guys will probably start talking about LeBron's future once the game is over...in the second quarter.” At least it takes attention away from the putrid Browns.

Kevin: “Ryan Clark couldn't eat 20 wings.” Story behind this comment. Hunt, Woody and myself went to Hooters a month back. Hunt and I got 20 wings. Hunt also ate some appetizers, so he was struggling finishing his 20. The waitress came over and called Hunt a p***y for not being able to finish. Woody and I could not stop laughing, and well, Hunt sludged home after slowly eating his 20 wings.

Smitty: “Bursa likes Denver here. When I asked him if he had any comments as to why, his answer was F**k Pittsburgh? Thats good enough for me.” That’s good enough for anyone.

Barnes: “Mad props to Denver management for hiring Josh McDaniels. He's like a ‘miniature Buddha.’” When the Browns were looking for a head coach, the guy I wanted was McDaniels. Would he have made a difference? Who knows. He couldn’t have done worse.

Jeff: “Roethlisberger sucking Mile High air after being chased all night long.” Replace ‘Roethlisberger’ with ‘Girl Big Ben is pursuing’ and ‘Mile High air’ with ‘Big Ben’s Big Member’ and it’s probably more accurate.

No special sections this week. So, that will do it for week nine. Enjoy.

Until next time, "read it, roll it, hole it."

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